2023 USGS Risk Research Projects

Site Prioritization Tool for Invasive Species: Integrating Diverse Spatial Data to Inform Risk

Principal investigator: Catherine Jarnevich

This project will develop an invasive species management tool for the contiguous USA that integrates both the risk of invasion at a site, such as disturbance and transport vectors, and the locations of important and unique resources. Invasive species can have direct health and societal impacts, and indirect impacts such as altering fire risk from changes in fuels. Stakeholders, such as the National Park Service co-investigators, have requested this information on integrated invasion risk to efficiently guide their limited funds for management efforts (prevention and early detection/rapid response). We have updated preliminary nationwide data related to invasion risk and site sensitivity, focusing on layers identified by stakeholders, to feed into a web-tool that will provide resource managers information to target efforts on locations of highest conservation concern that are also most at risk of invasion.   ​

Data will include readily available spatial layers such as richness of imperiled species and ecosystem disturbances derived from LandTrendr. We will also include spatial layers developed through this project, including potential human spread of invasive species and the observed density of nonnative species biodiversity. Each of these data layers represent some contribution to invasion risk or conservation concern, and the web-tool being developed will allow users to combine them to produce maps to target areas for management efforts. Users will be able to select from these data layers and weight their relative importance to create a spatially explicit estimate of invasion risk unique to each user’s intended use parameters. This web tool will be a publicly available, innovative tool that integrates and enables usage of spatial data. It will share these data as map layers to address a current, real-world problem faced by land managers trying to juggle invasive species management needs alongside limited resources to address these needs.
 

Risk to Campers on Tributary Debris Fans of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, AZ from Known Debris Flow Hazards
Principal investigator: Paul Grams ​

Intense rainfall during summer thunderstorms frequently causes flash floods and debris flows in tributaries of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, resulting in dangerous conditions for visitors to Grand Canyon National Park. Debris flows rapidly mobilize mud and boulders, transporting large volumes of sediment to debris fans that are commonly used for camping. These events present an extreme hazard to campers and have resulted in damage to property, injuries, and fatalities. Although flash floods and debris flows are known hazards, there is currently no specific hazard information available to the many thousands of people that visit the Colorado River each summer. ​

The goal of our USGS Risk Research and Applications Community of Practice project is to develop a risk assessment and communication plan for visitors to the river corridor in Grand Canyon National Park. Specifically, we aim to increase awareness about flash flood and debris flow risk so that people can be better informed when making decisions while in the backcountry. We are developing a risk assessment map for commonly used campsites utilizing information about debris flow probability of occurrence for more than 700 drainages in the National Park that will help identify potentially hazardous campsites. We have also held a workshop with stakeholders, including recreational river users, professional river guides, representatives from land management agencies, and emergency services professionals. In this workshop, we identified and prioritized methods for communicating risk to the public. This workshop also resulted in the initiation of a working group to develop a satellite-based text messaging emergency warning system that could reach visitors to the backcountry where cellular service is unavailable and provide alerts about threatening weather conditions.
 

Indigenous Drought Risk Assessment in the Colorado River Basin: Weaving Indigenous Knowledge into Assessment of Drought Risk
Principal investigator: Jessica Driscoll

The cross-cutting and cascading impacts of climate change and drought are posing unprecedented new challenges across the western landscape. The USGS has initiated a new approach to science to engage with local communities to provide science resources, data, and information to support drought planning, mitigation, and recovery.  The objective of these engagements is to build and reinforce long-lasting relationships with Tribal governments and Indigenous communities through a series of local engagement sessions starting in September 2023. Trust is key to meaningful engagement and communication in all formal and informal government-to-government notification processes.​

• Tribal Engagement Series: Drought in the Colorado River Basin