2025 USGS Risk Research Projects

Lori Pigue, Astrogeology Science Center 

Asteroid Impacts: The Hazard We May See Coming, But Haven't Prepared For 

When considering asteroid impacts and associated hazards, the question is not “if” they will affect major population centers, but “when.” Small objects falling to Earth are common, and sometimes arrive unannounced like the Chelyabinsk event, which injured ~1,500 people. Larger objects may provide emergency managers enough time to prepare a range of mitigation strategies. We suggest that we start development and education now, for a range of scenarios, before the threat is imminent. The goal of these communications projects is to increase public awareness of hazards from common asteroid impacts, while providing emergency managers and public affairs specialists with a scaffold of a range of hazards possible from asteroid impacts, from which to develop detailed campaigns for specific threats. In addition to a Fact Sheet and 3-minute video on asteroid impacts, USGS Astrogeology and the FEMA Office of Emerging Threats will create a Press Kit relating to asteroid impact preparedness. These products integrate findings from community feedback, indicating a need to develop comprehensive media approaches to asteroid threats, socialize asteroid detection and characterization efforts, and communicate impact mitigation strategies. We will start development using feedback from the Planetary Defense community at the May, 2025 Planetary Defense Conference which will have a wide sampling of Subject Matter Experts, Public Relations Specialists, and interested Emergency Managers. We will conclude the work in March, 2026 in preparation for dissemination at the Planetary Defense Tabletop Exercise in April, 2026. 

Anne Tillery & Ellis Margolis, New Mexico Water Science Center & Fort Collins Science Center 

Improving communications about wildfire and post-fire debris flow risk in New Mexico 

Our team will develop communications products that address post-wildfire hazards, including flooding, debris flows, impaired water quality, and landslides. These hazards threaten safety, human health, and infrastructure. Emergency managers are challenged to understand and communicate the dynamic nature of these cascading events, which can play out multiple years after a wildfire. Our proposed products will highlight the need for continued environmental monitoring and preparedness, and the relevance of USGS services, including maps of burned areas and burn severity; flood and debris flow risk assessments; and post-fire ecological monitoring. Together, these services can support communities in establishing vigilance for post-fire hazards. In collaboration with COMPASS, we will produce three bilingual deliverables: 1) an informational flyer targeting rural communities, where post-fire flood risks are high and residents rely on local or informal venues for information; 2) a brief video for a wider audience that introduces a novel slogan for post-fire hazards (analogous to “Turn Around, Don’t Drown” or “When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors”) and emphasizes the longer-term window associated with these hazards; and 3) a longer-form video that targets county emergency managers, using interviews to highlight their experiences in managing post-fire hazards. 

Severe wildfire and post-fire flooding and debris flows pose multiple risks to communities throughout the nation. While these risks are increasing with climate change, communication of the risks and the latest science on the characteristics and mitigation efforts of these hazards are often limited by resources. In our focal area, Santa Fe, New Mexico, new co-produced USGS modeling research shows that the impacts of a severe fire in local watersheds would be devastating to communities, but that ongoing fuel-reduction treatments provide the opportunity to reduce wildfire risk and mitigate flooding/debris flow hazards. Communicating these risks and risk-mitigating opportunities to the public and local decision-makers ensures that the best science-based decisions can be made to reduce these risks. We propose to leverage existing long-term partnerships with local decision-makers and land managers to produce science communications products on 1) the increasing risk of severe wildfire and post-fire flooding/debris flows, 2) the threats of these hazards to communities and ecosystems, and 3) how managers and communities can mitigate these risks. Our deliverables will strive to increase public understanding, preparedness, and support for mitigation efforts. We will produce multilingual products catered to the greater Santa Fe area, with a focus on reducing hazard risk to vulnerable communities that may be disproportionately impacted. The proposed work will also strengthen USGS-partner relationships, build science communication capacity at USGS-FORT and the Land Change Science (LCS) program, and create a framework for collaborative science communication of wildfire, flooding, and debris flow risks in other communities with similar risks. 

Holly Weiss-Racine, Volcano Science Center/Volcano Hazard Program 

Lahar Outreach and Education Materials  

In Pierce County, Washington, communities continue to grow within potentially deadly lahar inundation zones in the picturesque valleys downstream from Mt Rainier. A lahar is a flowing mixture of volcanic debris and water that can occur with or without a volcanic eruption. The crucial study of the deposits of previous lahars has been done, and models have been developed to assess where lahars may occur in the future. However, communicating information about lahar hazard to at-risk populations remains a challenge. We lack outreach products that share key information about lahar hazards, risks and protective actions in a concise, accessible and actionable manner.The goal of this proposal is to address this issue by producing two products (in English and Spanish) for use in any lahar zone; 1) a flier with a short but memorable set of actions for general lahar preparedness similar to "drop, cover, hold”, as adopted for earthquakes; and 2) a short video building on the concepts shared in the flier. The third product, a magnet, would be designed specifically for use by Pierce County emergency managers which would include basic lahar information and a QR code to a website containing additional information, e.g., preparedness measures and evacuation routes. The three products would be distributed in and adjacent to the lahar inundation zone. The flier and video would be made available for national and international access to circulate this life-saving information more broadly by adding them to ready.gov/volcanoes, which does not presently have any specific lahar hazard information