2026 USGS Risk Research Projects

Thomas Gushue, Southwest Biological Science Center (SBSC), Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) 

Improving flash flood forecasting and risk communication for Grand Canyon River Alert System 

In 2024, work funded by the Risk Community of Practice led to the development and launch of a new and novel emergency alert system for the Grand Canyon region designed to reach backcountry travelers by sending alert messages to subscribers using satellite messaging devices. Risk communication products now exist that are actively being used to inform others of hazardous events and conditions in Grand Canyon. These products have been used extensively by a wide range of end-users extending beyond the originally identified stakeholders to include backcountry recreationalists and the general public. However, challenges still exist in accurately forecasting events, particularly flash flooding, and in viewing these alerts within the context of decision support operations. In July and August 2025, the Dragon Bravo wildfire burned over 150,000 acres of the Grand Canyon North Rim, impacting the upper reaches of a dozen watersheds that terminate into the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Many of the impacted watersheds are used by backcountry travelers, especially at the terminus of the drainages where Colorado River runners often camp overnight. This catastrophic fire brings enhanced risks of hazardous events within the impacted watersheds and the Colorado River corridor. A need exists to provide hazard information which reflects the new post-fire environment and that is in standardized and actionable formats accessible by multiple end-users. We propose addressing this need by developing operational tools to combine forecasted alerts, ground observations, and other relevant information into consistent, actionable formats that allow for better integration of information. 

Merritt Harlan, USGS Hydrologic Remote Sensing Branch 

Monitoring Alaskan glacial dammed lake outburst potential using satellite-derived water level 

This project addresses the hazard of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) from glacial-dammed lakes (GDLs) in Alaska, which pose significant risks to downstream communities, infrastructure, ecosystems, and local economies. Building on an existing USGS data release that generates satellite-derived lake water surface elevations from the Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, this project will transition research-grade products into application through a dynamic monitoring framework for the National Weather Service (NWS) Alaska River Forecast Center (APRFC).The primary goal is to deliver decision-ready GDL monitoring products, including lake elevation time series, estimates of pre-release storage, and indicators of potential outburst conditions to support GLOF forecasting and risk reduction. Satellite-derived lake elevation data have already informed forecasting and response actions during recent 2025 GLOF events at Snow and Skilak Lakes, demonstrating the value of these products for operational decision-making. This project will expand and formalize the integration of satellite-based lake monitoring into routine forecasting applications. The approach involves the following: filtering and aggregating SWOT pixel cloud data to produce satellite-derived lake elevations; correcting for geoid, tidal, and datum offsets, masking ice-affected periods; and applying automated outlier detection. Products have been validated using in-situ observations and previous GLOF events. Close collaboration with NWS APRFC ensures that outputs meet application requirements by enabling routine, actionable use of SWOT-based GDL monitoring for GLOF hazard forecasting. 

Sara Oyler-McCance, Fort Collins Science Center 

A Decision Framework for Deploying an eDNA Point-of-Use Assay to Reduce Risk of Spreading the Invasive Brown Treesnake 

Brown Treesnakes (BTS) are an invasive species on Guam that threaten ecosystems, infrastructure, and military readiness, with a high risk of spreading to other Pacific islands. Current methods for preventing the spread of BTS (known as interdiction) such as visual surveys, trapping, and detection dogs, are costly and labor-intensive. Environmental DNA (eDNA) offers a promising alternative, but traditional lab-based assays require weeks to process samples, limiting rapid response. To address this gap, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is developing a point-of-use (POU) eDNA assay that delivers results in minutes, enabling real-time decision-making for interdiction efforts. While USGS is leading the development and validation of this innovative tool (funded by Department of War [DoW]), successful implementation depends on understanding how DoW biologists, who conduct interdiction efforts on Guam, will integrate it into existing protocols. This project engages DoW end-users through virtual workshops to identify operational needs, decision criteria, and logistical constraints. Using this input, we will construct a decision-support framework, including a decision tree informed by structured decision-making principles and simulations to evaluate deployment strategies under varying assay sensitivities and management scenarios. By coupling cutting-edge detection technology with decision science and stakeholder engagement, this project ensures the POU assay is not only scientifically robust but operationally practical. The resulting framework will guide when and how to use the tool, improving efficiency and confidence in BTS interdiction and serving as a model for other invasive species applications. 

Erich Peitzsch, USGS Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center  

Interagency Avalanche Research – Developing a framework to enhance avalanche forecasting and warning issuance 

Since 1950, avalanches have killed 1,084 people in the U.S., averaging 27 deaths annually over the past decade. Beyond the tragic loss of life, avalanches disrupt transportation, commerce, and ecosystems by damaging habitats and blocking access to critical infrastructure. Economic impacts are significant; for example, closures of Interstate 70 in Colorado cost roughly $2 million per hour. Similar disruptions occur on major highways in Utah, Washington, and Wyoming, as well as in Glacier National Park, where delays affect tourism contributing \$344 million annually to local economies. Current efforts by the USDA Forest Service National Avalanche Center (NAC) and the Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) focus on forecasting and mitigation, leaving key research gaps. To address these, we propose forming an Interagency Avalanche Research Team (IART) led by USGS in collaboration with NAC and CAIC. This team will integrate expertise, technology, and decades of largely unanalyzed data to improve forecasting and develop innovative operational tools. Our initial goal is to evaluate the efficacy and accuracy of avalanche warnings across broad spatial scales and create a quantitative decision-support tool for issuing avalanche warnings. This tool will help forecasters make critical, data-driven decisions, resulting in more accurate public advisories. Ultimately, IART aims to modernize avalanche safety and forecasting, ensuring resilience amid growing winter recreation, expanding development in mountain regions, and increasing climate variability. 

Lori Pigue, USGS Astrogeology Science Center 

Towards an Asteroid Hazard Ready Nation: Improving Operational Readiness by developing protocols and plans for an NEO Hazard Response Team 

In 2025, Near Earth Objects (NEO) were formally designated a natural disaster under the jurisdiction of the USGS, requiring the agency to field a “Science Response Team” capable of rapid, time-sensitive action. Current USGS readiness to this hazard is below the lowest “Red” posture for mitigation, management, and response. With initial support from the Risk Community of Practice, we would advance the agency’s operational readiness for responding to short-notice NEO impact events by establishing a NEO Response Team and data collection protocols relevant to hazard impact risks to life and property. Our team will determine event deployment needs, establish protocols for data collection and archiving, and define review requirements aligned with ORR database management. We will define requirements and collection methods for actionable data for imminent NEO threats allowing the team to secure critical perishable and hazard/loss data. We will create decision trees that guide staffing, agency communication, and standards for response and recovery in time-critical situations, strengthening ties with the multi-agency hazards infrastructure. These tasks represent minimum requirements for the “Red” posture, laying the foundation for higher-level impact threat response. More importantly, this enables the creation of foundational risk and ORR datasets and advanced decision support tools that transform raw information into actionable risk communications to emergency managers. With support from the Risk Community of Practice, the USGS can move from vulnerability to readiness, ensuring the nation is prepared to respond decisively to asteroid impact hazards. 

Bill Selbig, Upper Midwest Water Science Center 

Urban Flash Flood Detection Networks: Risk Reduction through Advanced Warning 

In 2021, the USGS, in cooperation with the city of Madison, WI initiated a pilot project to test an urban flash flood detection and warning network using Internet-of-Things (IoT) technology. Early results have shown IoT devices to be compact, low cost, extremely energy efficient, and able to transmit data over long distances. These qualities make IoT sensors an ideal choice for mesh networks that can be scaled to meet municipal budgets. IoT devices can effectively create a sentinel flood monitoring network to help reduce delays in emergency response by providing real-time measurement of water levels in stormwater pipes, streets, or other urban infrastructure at the hyperlocal level. Data are translated into actionable information by integrating into cloud-based web applications that can clearly communicate flood status in real time. Although real-time alerts improve situational awareness of urban flash flooding to city officials, they do not prevent motorists from becoming stranded by entering flooded areas. For this reason, the city officials would like to pilot the use of electronic signage to warn motorists of a nearby flood hazard when it occurs. Our goal is to integrate these signs with the existing IoT network so they can be activated autonomously and remotely based on real-time water level. When an IoT sensor detects a flood, a downlink will be sent from the cloud to an IoT-enabled relay and turn the sign on. The sign will remain activated until flood waters recede below the road surface. 

Tim Titus, USGS Astrogeology Science Center 

Asteroid impact cascading hazards - Developing an actionable plan to transition from physical hazards to societal risk 

The USGS has a supporting role for planetary defense from asteroid impact events. This role is outlined in the 2018 and 2023 National preparedness strategy and action plan for potentially hazardous nearEarth objects and planetary defense that includes cascading hazard modeling and planetary civil defense (PCD) preparedness. The 2024 Planetary Defense Tabletop Exercise (TTX#5) identified PCD needing improvement through greater interagency and international efforts.For asteroid impact events, NASA is the lead agency prior to impact, while FEMA becomes lead after impact. The USGS is a supporting agency throughout both phases. Preparedness spans this transition with both the NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office and the FEMA Office of Emerging Threats needing actionable information. The USGS already supports preparedness for a range of hazards and currently conducts simulations of potential cascading hazards from asteroid impacts, but these capabilities need to be operationalized for planetary defense.A team of USGS, FEMA, NASA, and Applied Physics Laboratory tabletop exercise subject matter experts will focus on how to operationalize current USGS cascading hazards capabilities and better define the USGS role in asteroid impact preparedness. Through a series of mini-virtual workshops, a hybrid face-toface workshop, and asynchronous exchanges, this team will develop a transition plan that moves USGS planetary defense hazard research findings into operational pipelines. The transition plan will define procedures and products necessary for minimizing societal and economic risk from asteroid impact hazards. With the support from the Risk Community of Practice, the USGS will be prepared the next time an asteroid strikes! 

Lauren T. Toth, St. Peterburg Coastal and Marine Science Center 

A tool to improve the functional impact of coral restoration 

Florida’s coral reef (FCR) provides critical natural infrastructure that protects coastal communities from storms and fuels local economies through tourism and fisheries. The FCR’s >\$8.5B in ecosystem services requires maintaining reef growth (accretion) in excess of reef erosion. Unfortunately, natural hazards including marine heatwaves and coral-disease outbreaks have driven unprecedented recent declines in coral populations. As a result, reef erosion is now the dominant process on FCR, threatening the persistence of critical reef structures and services. To counteract that risk, coral-reef managers and restoration practitioners have dedicated significant resources towards restoring FCR (e.g., \$450M State allocation over next 10 years), with the primary objective of reviving reef-ecosystem functions (including accretion); however, those stakeholders currently lack a means of evaluating and monitoring functional impacts of restoration actions. We will address that disconnect by adapting the “carbonate-budget” models we have successfully used in scientific reef-growth assessments into a user-friendly tool allowing users to quantify reef growth and evaluate functional trade-offs and risks among coral-restoration strategies. Building upon an existing NOAA reef-monitoring tool (https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/RPTool_simulation/) Toth and NOAA collaborators (Enochs, Morris, Webb) have developed a proof-of-concept framework for the application (Fig. 1), but data and input from end-users are needed to ensure its utility. This project will bring together a core group of scientists (USGS, NOAA), coral-restoration practitioners (Mote, FL-FWC), and natural-resource managers (NOAA, FL-FWC, FL-DEP) to co-develop a versatile tool that will directly support end-user needs and provide essential decision-support to help managers and restoration practitioners maximize functional outcomes while optimizing resource expenditures.