Study Outlines a Range of Possible Fire Futures for Alaska
Alaska CASC researchers project a future with more wildfire activity, showing that the annual area burned is likely to increase under all modeled emissions scenarios and that the region may shift towards deciduous-dominated forests.
Alaska's boreal forests have experienced wildfire for millennia, but even areas that have historically had low fire activity have seen notable increases in fire frequency compared to the late 20th century. A modeling study funded by the Alaska CASC projected a range of possible future wildfire outcomes across multiple climate pathways. The results indicate that median annual area burned is likely to increase under all modeled scenarios, with high-emissions futures more than doubling the total burn area and driving up to an eightfold increase in parts of the Alaskan Arctic and western Alaska. The study also anticipates shifts in vegetation from spruce to deciduous dominance, which is a landscape transformation already occurring in some regions. Still, uncertainties remain. For example, shifts in vegetation flammability (deciduous trees are generally less-flammable than spruce) and higher summer precipitation could help bound future wildfire activity. Researchers note that increasing landscape diversity (varying age, species, and spatial patterns of fuels) paired with targeted fuel management strategies may help reduce the risk of large wildfires.
The full paper, titled “Projections of Climate-Driven Changes in Fire Regimes and Implications for Boreal Landscapes in Alaska and Northwest Canada,” is published in the journal Earth's Future.