Understanding Uncertainty, Four Realms at a Time
By melding scientific measures with human emotional responses and values, National CASC researchers and partners discuss a more holistic way to understand the uncertainties caused by accelerating global changes.
Around the world, sweeping changes to climate, land, water, and ecosystems are creating conditions we have never seen before. Environmental scientists, stewards, and decision makers generally agree that we need to act proactively in the face of these global changes. However, conversations around actionable next steps can stall from uncertainties, such as gaps in knowledge or unknown interactions between drivers of change. To reduce uncertainties, many suggest gathering more data before attempting to pursue new solutions. But with issues as complex as global change, data alone might not be enough to make the future clearer.
In a recent publication, National CASC researchers and partners discuss a more holistic way to understand uncertainty by melding scientific measures with human emotional responses and values. This approach draws on the Four Realms Framework, a tool which highlights the ways in which humans experience and perceive the world through four overlapping realms of perception: Physical (what we observe), Mental (how we think), Emotional (what we feel), and Transcendental (what we connect to in the world beyond ourselves).
Many “western” or “positivist” scientists tend to speak from a scientific background that values complete objectivity, where human emotions and values are removed from the process to reduce biases. Environmental scientists and decision makers who are trained this way try to perceive the world mainly through the Physical (or observational) and Mental (or intellectual) Realms. However, because we are all influenced by our worldview, values, and beliefs, people are likely interpreting information and forming positions with the Emotional and Transcendental Realms too, even if it’s unrecognized. According to the authors, decisions become more effective when they incorporate all Four Realms because they reflect the way people actually respond to uncertainty by using thoughts, emotions, behaviors, and deeper values in addition to traditional analysis.
In their publication, the authors suggest ways that scientists and decision makers could use the Four Realms to work through disagreement and inspire action. Through examples from environmental decision-making experiences, they point out that accessing the Four Realms could help to engage individuals in difficult conversations, clarify why different people may reach different conclusions, and support groups productively working through disagreement over management actions.
At the 2025 Ecological Society of America Conference, the team lead a Special Session to introduce the Four Realms Framework to participants. Through a set of questions and discussion, participants and organizers explored techniques meant to increase their awareness of how all Four Realms may impact their perception and understanding in environmental uncertainty. The exercise is described in a “Meeting Review” publication of the Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America.
As global change accelerates and uncertainty grows, tapping into the Four Realms may guide scientists and decision makers alike towards action that is molded by all realms of human perception.