An agent-based simulation approach to test how species’ migratory and wintering ranges might be strained and shifted under an increasingly variable and extreme climate

Animal migration over the North American continent is contingent in many ways on the predictability of weather conditions along the route. Yet, climate projections suggest that seasonal patterns in temperature, pressure, and precipitation are likely to change. For iconic migratory species, such as the Monarch Butterfly, these climatic changes could undercut their ability to maintain flight routes through the south-central United States. Such a loss would not only deprive the public of their connection to these species and the migratory phenomenon but would also disrupt important ecological relationships. This project will build simulation models based on what is known about bird and insect migration to study how their movement abilities might be affected under various climate projections. This approach will allow us to evaluate “breaking points” across many different scenarios to better understand what conditions could foreshadow a collapse of ecological function, what mitigative actions could help build resilience in the landscape, and what responses might be effective at stemming impacts. The resulting simulation model will be portable to other regions of the U.S. and applicable to a wider suite of species impacts, such as shifts in breeding habitat suitability under climate change. In effect, the goal of the project is to build a tool that will enable wildlife management agencies across the U.S. to better understand how species of concern are likely to be affected by projected changes in climate at relatively local scales.