A persistent management question is whether current climate adaptation planning will remain robust when facing a growing number of invasive species. The concern is that current management strategies that focus exclusively on single invasive species and overlook climate-driven biological interactions, may lead to poor decisions. By delivering actionable science, this project directly informs specific planning, management and decision needs of tribal and governmental partners working in the Columbia River Basin. First, we assess the information needs for, and barriers to, effective aquatic invasive species management in the face of climate change in the Columbia River Basin. This helps synthesize knowledge and build collaborative relationships among stakeholders facing similar invasive species challenges. Second, we develop early warning indicators that combine spatial models with climate change projections to help inform management efforts to reduce the spread and impact of multiple invasive species - smallmouth bass and rusty crayfish - on juvenile Chinook salmon in the John Day River, Oregon. Climate change is posed to both directly affect juvenile Chinook salmon and potentially amplify the impact of these interacting invasive species, who themselves may promote each other’s continued spread. Model-derived early warning indicators allow managers to better anticipate invader outbreaks and substantial ecological impacts. Working with our partners in the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission, Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, we develop and test realistic climate-enlightened management scenarios that draw on these methods to minimize the spread of invasive species and impacts on salmon. In summary, this project seeks to increase our ability to predict the ecological outcomes of interacting invasive species, and develop climate adaptation strategies that can accommodate uncertainty, and build resistance and enhance the resilience of freshwater ecosystems.
