The Edwards Aquifer in south-central Texas provides water resources to more than 2 million people and is home to eight federally listed threatened and endangered species that are dependent on spring flow from the aquifer for survival. Recent results from global climate models indicate that over the next several decades increases in annual average temperatures and evapotranspiration are likely in this semi-arid region. Decision makers and water resource planners need to have a robust scientific understanding of the impacts of future climate conditions on the Edwards Aquifer system to assess future management strategies needed to maintain water availability and ensure adequate spring flow for protected species.
The research team will project potential occurrences of severe droughts, assess the effectiveness of existing habitat conservation measures to protect ecologically sensitive spring-flows during such droughts, and determine if any adjustments might be needed. To do this, cutting-edge artificial intelligence models and climate data products will be produced to better understand how the Edwards Aquifer system responds to future climate variability. The research team will examine how future climate conditions may impact flow at the major springs that are home to the threatened and endangered species covered under the Edwards Aquifer Habitat Conservation Plan. Using the extreme drought of the 1950’s in south-central Texas as a benchmark, the team will analyze the risk of similar future droughts on the sustainability of spring flows required to sustain aquatic habitats.
The technical tools, results, and knowledge produced by this project will be shared with decision makers and the scientific community. The novel technical approach and research products will be used to evaluate climate impacts in support of the renewal application for the Federal Incidental Take Permit of the Edwards Aquifer Habitat Conservation Plan, which will expire in 2028. These results will be a powerful tool for the Edwards Aquifer Authority to develop and execute groundwater and habitat management plans that support healthy spring ecosystems.
