Climate Effects on Prescribed Fire Implementation and Efficacy in Northern Mixed-Grass Prairie Active

Prescribed burning – planned, controlled fires conducted under weather and fuel conditions designed for safety and effectiveness – is a common practice used to maintain and restore native prairies in the Northern Great Plains. However, climate change will affect the number of days in a year, and when,  suitable conditions for prescribed fires occur. For instance, warmer temperatures may shift these “good prescribed-fire days” earlier in the spring and later in the fall, but uncertainty about future climate makes it hard to predict how large shifts will be and if the number of good fire days each year will generally increase or decrease. Further, it’s hard to know whether prescribed fires will continue to achieve their goals in new conditions.



This project will measure how the number and timing of good fire days has changed over the last 30 years and predict how  they will change over the next 50 years under four plausible future climate scenarios. Changes to longer-term weather patterns – in the seasons leading up to and following prescribed fires – may also change the effectiveness of the fires in achieving their goals, like reducing Kentucky bluegrass, cheatgrass, and other invasive grasses. To address this issue, the project will also use data from long-term plant monitoring programs to look for patterns in how prairie responds to prescribed fire in different seasonal and annual weather conditions.



Land management agencies in the Northern Great Plains like the National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and U.S. Forest Service use prescribed fires often, so it is important for them to understand how climate change will affect the number and timing of good prescribed-fire days and fire’s effects. To that end, the ultimate goal of this project is to create a model that will help managers develop effective prescribed fire strategies for an uncertain future climate.