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Developing and Testing a Drought Early Warning Product in the South-Central United States Active

By Climate Adaptation Science Centers December 31, 2021

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Drought is a common result of climate variability in the south-central United States. With increasing temperatures and more variable precipitation patterns expected in the future, drought will continue to stress water quantity and quality in this region. University of Oklahoma researchers have demonstrated that the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a measure of long-term drought conditions, can help predict drought patterns at multi-county scales in south-central Oklahoma. The model forecasts future PDSI using larger-scale climate drivers, commonly referred to as “teleconnections,”  such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These teleconnections influence precipitation patterns across hundreds or thousands of miles, including the south-central United States.



This project uses the relationships between teleconnections across the Earth and precipitation patterns in the four states served by the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) to develop an experimental product for predicting future droughts. The research team will engage natural resource managers, including fish, wildlife, and water managers, across the four-state region to gather information about what type of climate forecasts have been useful to them in the past and how much advance notice they need to prepare for drought. The research team also will work to identify what months or seasons an early warning of drought would be most useful and whether regional climate information can be provided at a high enough resolution to inform their management decisions. Drawing on a large set of possible teleconnection indicators, the team will develop a set of statistical models and determine whether the resulting forecasts meet the resource managers’ needs. Deliverables include (1) specific drought forecast models for each climate division, as appropriate, in the South Central CASC region; and (2) guidance on how these forecasts can be used by managers through discussions about drought preparedness with regional stakeholders.

Drought is a common result of climate variability in the south-central United States. With increasing temperatures and more variable precipitation patterns expected in the future, drought will continue to stress water quantity and quality in this region. University of Oklahoma researchers have demonstrated that the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a measure of long-term drought conditions, can help predict drought patterns at multi-county scales in south-central Oklahoma. The model forecasts future PDSI using larger-scale climate drivers, commonly referred to as “teleconnections,”  such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These teleconnections influence precipitation patterns across hundreds or thousands of miles, including the south-central United States.



This project uses the relationships between teleconnections across the Earth and precipitation patterns in the four states served by the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) to develop an experimental product for predicting future droughts. The research team will engage natural resource managers, including fish, wildlife, and water managers, across the four-state region to gather information about what type of climate forecasts have been useful to them in the past and how much advance notice they need to prepare for drought. The research team also will work to identify what months or seasons an early warning of drought would be most useful and whether regional climate information can be provided at a high enough resolution to inform their management decisions. Drawing on a large set of possible teleconnection indicators, the team will develop a set of statistical models and determine whether the resulting forecasts meet the resource managers’ needs. Deliverables include (1) specific drought forecast models for each climate division, as appropriate, in the South Central CASC region; and (2) guidance on how these forecasts can be used by managers through discussions about drought preparedness with regional stakeholders.