Future of Species Range Shift: Integrating adaptation and migration potential into forecasts of geographic range shifts with climate change

Climate change is projected to redraw the boundaries between grassland and forest ecosystems in the Midwest. However, Midwestern landscapes are among the most fragmented in the nation, and this fragmentation could impede natural range change in some species. Current models of range shifts often focus exclusively on climate variables, neglecting how land use patterns could modulate patterns of migration. Furthermore, current models rarely consider the potential for species to adapt to changing climate conditions.

This project responds to these limitations by developing a predictive framework for range shifts that incorporates evolutionary capacity and land use. This model will be applied to two species in the upper Midwest that have contrasting management concerns: paper birch and common tansy. Paper birch is a declining and culturally valued native species, while common tansy is an invasive species of increasing concern, especially as it has been observed in recent years to spread into novel habitats. Data from an existing reciprocal transplant experiment that incorporates climate manipulations will be used to model the distribution of suitable climate for tansy and birch under future climate scenarios. Additionally, the project will implement a migration model that accounts for the limitations that land use patterns impose upon species movement, and locations will be identified where range shifts could occur and where they might be limited by habitat fragmentation. In addition, the modeling framework will help to identify areas where habitat enhancements for connectivity could promote invasion. Using these maps, areas of future habitat suitability for birch can be identified, informing targeted conservation managemenet or assisted migration efforts.