Future of Species Range Shifts: Quantifying and Projecting the Effects of Climate Change on the Summer Behavior and Distribution of the Porcupine Caribou Herd in Arctic Alaska

Declines in many barren-ground caribou herds across North America have coincided with the ‘greening of the Arctic’, raising concerns about the influence of changing summer habitat conditions on caribou, and the subsequent effects on Indigenous communities that rely on caribou for subsistence. These cocerns have been compounded by plans and proposals to expand energy development into caribou summer ranges across the North Slope of Alaska. 

These issues are of particular interest for the Porcupine caribou herd, currently one of the largest herds in North America, and which spans the Alaska-Yukon border. Recently, the herd has exhibited erratic movement patterns, inhibiting harvest opportunities for some Indigenous communities and generating uncertainty about important habitat areas. Proposals to initiate energy development on the calving grounds of the herd, located within the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, have exacerbated concerns among federal, state, tribal, non-profit and international entities about the potential consequences of climate- and development-induced habitat changes on caribou.

In response to these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Yukon Government, and Parks Canada developed a research collaboration and collected unprecedented field data on summer habitat and behavior of Porcupine caribou. This project will leverage that field data to identify the influence of climate on caribou summer habitat conditions and predict how they will be altered, determine how climate-driven summer conditions influence caribou behavior and distributions, and project future shifts in summer caribou distributions. Results will inform agencies and partners about how summer conditions and caribou distributions are likely to shift in the future, with important implications for caribou management practices, Indigenous subsistence opportunities, and land-use planning in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.