Future of Species Range Shift: Species range shifts, protected areas, and climate connectivity

A key assumption behind many predictions of ecosystem response to climate change is that plant species will track their suitable climates through space and time. However, climate connectivity – the ability of a landscape to facilitate or impede climate-induced movement – will strongly influence how plants are able to move through the landscape. Forward-looking, climate change-informed conservation and protected area stewardship requires an understanding of climate connectivity. Several factors affect climate connectivity and plant species movements, such as the distance that needs to be traveled to track suitable climate, which may exceed the dispersal ability of many species. Additionally, land use intensity in the unprotected matrix will limit climate-induced range shifts among protected areas for some species. Exposure to increasingly dissimilar climates may also impede climate-induced range shifts. While these constraints on species range shifts are well established, they have not yet been integrated to predict species-specific range movements and identify where intervention might be necessary to facilitate climate connectivity. Building on previous research, this project will develop species-specific assessments of climate connectivity and potential range shifts for a suite of management-relevant species within the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center's protected area network including national forests and the unprotected matrix of federal, private, and tribal lands.