Coastal marshes are vital habitats that protect and support our coastal communities and economies by providing protection from storm surge, filtering pollutants, and providing recreational opportunities. Rising sea levels threaten marshes and jeopardize the benefits they provide to human communities and ecosystems.
To preserve these benefits, coastal resource managers need to understand how marshes will change in the short- and long-term in response to rising sea levels. Scientific models provide resource managers with an effective way to visualize and understand these changes, but the numerous choices of marsh models currently available can be overwhelming to coastal managers. The similarities and differences in model capabilities and the resulting implications for managing coastal marsh habitats are not well understood. Furthermore, the model predictions have not been robustly compared to historical data, which is needed to assess the effectiveness in predicting changes in marshes as sea levels rise.
To address this need, researchers will work with marsh model developers and coastal resource managers to understand and provide guidance on which models are best suited for different types of management decisions. Project team members will convene marsh modeler experts to develop a method for comparing the results of different models to each other and to historical data. Project team members will also convene coastal resource managers to summarize the different capabilities of each model and the ways that this information can be used to inform management and adaptation decisions under a changing climate.
The results of this project will improve the usability and interpretation of marsh modeling for resource adaptation planning efforts. For example, coastal managers, such those working in the National Wildlife Refuge program and National Estuarine Research Reserves, will use this information to more effectively consider options to facilitate marsh migration.
