The populations of many forest birds have declined in recent decades due to loss of habitat area and degradation of habitat quality. Past land management has left the landscape of the heavily forested Appalachian Mountains with too little old growth as well as too few young, regenerating forests. This change in habitat structure has led to the listing of several forest birds as Species of Greatest Conservation Need. Active management is needed to maintain habitat for these species, but climate change may alter the kinds of management that are effective.
Climate change is likely to affect forest structure – and bird habitat suitability – because of shifts in temperature, precipitation, and disturbance. While current management plans recognize climate change as a threat to some species, long-term planning is limited by uncertainty in how climate change will affect threatened bird species and what options are most likely to be effective in adapting management plans to future climate.
The research team will co-design management scenarios with partners and stakeholders. A simulation model of forest dynamics coupled with models of bird habitat will be used to assess the potential for these strategies to maintain bird habitat into the future. In close collaboration with partners, the research team will develop forecasts for priority bird conservation areas and maps of bird habitat under several co-developed management scenarios and climate projections. These forecasts and maps will allow partners to improve their long-term planning by estimating direct and indirect threats to birds under climate change, quantifying the potential for interventions to mitigate those threats, and identifying areas to prioritize for management. The improved planning aided by these decision-support products will improve long-term outcomes of management projects while predicting and reducing conflicts with other management goals.
