Modeling Large Fires in Response to Potential Tipping Points in Fuel Dryness

Wildfire burn areas are increasing in the western U.S., a change that has been linked to increased fuel aridity caused by climate change. Recognizing that there will likely be even more large fires in the future presents an opportunity to prepare and adapt to the expected climatic changes. 

This project addresses three key science questions: 1) Is there a specific level (threshold) of fuel aridity below which large fires more likely, and levels of temperature and humidity that don’t change how these fires begin and spread? 2) if there is a fuel aridity threshold, how often has that level been exceeded in the past? 3) Do climate models predict this threshold will be exceeded more or less often in the future? 

Results from this study will inform the U.S. Forest Service’s Climate Adaptation Plan that highlights five key focus areas under adapt to changing fire regimes. The primary outcomes will include 1) data on fuel aridity thresholds that represent tipping points where large fires become more likely; 2) predictions about future occurrence of the threshold from future climate models; and 3) commonly used metrics and fire spread model analyses that can be used by practitioners to understand and respond to fire behavior.