The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will publish an updated National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) in 2023 covering the conterminous U.S. (CONUS), Alaska, and Hawaii (50-State Update). The next update of the NSHM for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) will be in 2025.
2023 50-State NSHM
The updates for the conterminous U.S. and Alaska will follow the schedule below. The update for Hawaii is already underway and will likely be published before 2023, but any additional updates will also follow the schedule below. The schedule allows for:
- 2 years of development, including evaluations of non-USGS ground motion and source models (e.g., NGA-Subduction),
- User feedback early and often (e.g., a kick-off workshop in January 2021, and regional workshops scheduled throughout the update process; workshop information will be posted as soon as information is available),
- 1 year for publication, including reconciliation of reviews from a journal, the NSHM Steering Committee, building code and other users, and the public, and
- Coordination with the next edition of the NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions for New Buildings and Other Structures (as well as the 2028 ASCE 7 Standard and 2030 International Building Code).
The deadline for the earthquake hazard community to send published ground motion and source models, data, and methods for the 2023 NSHM is December 31, 2020. Only published (or accepted for publication), peer-reviewed data, methods, and models will be considered. The sooner they are brought to our attention, the more likely it is that we can include them, resources permitting.
Please bring the publications to our attention by emailing Allison Shumway with cc to Mark Petersen and Peter Powers. Allison Shumway will reply to confirm receipt and request additional information, if needed.
Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI)
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will publish an updated National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) in 2025. The PRVI model was last updated in 2003.
The updates for the Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) will follow the schedule below. The schedule allows for:
- 2 years of development, including evaluations of non-USGS source and ground motion models (e.g., NGA-Subduction GMMs),
- User feedback early and often (e.g., a kick-off public workshop in April 2023 [timed with the 2023 Annual Meeting of the Seismological Society of America being held in San Juan, Puerto Rico], and additional workshop(s) scheduled throughout the update process [Workshop information will be posted as soon as information is available]),
- 1 year for publication, including reconciliation of reviews from a peer-reviewed journal, the NSHM Steering Committee, building code and other users, and the public, and
- Coordination with the 2026 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions for New Buildings and Other Structures (as well as the 2028 ASCE7 Standard and 2030 International Building Code).
The deadline for the earthquake hazard community to send published source and ground motion models, data, and methods for the 2025 PRVI NSHM is December 31, 2022. Only published (or accepted for publication), peer-reviewed data, methods, and models will be considered. The sooner they are brough to our attention, the more likely it is that we can include them in the updated model, resources permitting.
Please bring the publications to our attention by emailing Allison Shumway with cc to Mark Petersen and Julie Herrick. One of us will reply to confirm receipt and request additional information, if needed.
- Overview
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will publish an updated National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) in 2023 covering the conterminous U.S. (CONUS), Alaska, and Hawaii (50-State Update). The next update of the NSHM for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) will be in 2025.
2023 50-State NSHM
The updates for the conterminous U.S. and Alaska will follow the schedule below. The update for Hawaii is already underway and will likely be published before 2023, but any additional updates will also follow the schedule below. The schedule allows for:
- 2 years of development, including evaluations of non-USGS ground motion and source models (e.g., NGA-Subduction),
- User feedback early and often (e.g., a kick-off workshop in January 2021, and regional workshops scheduled throughout the update process; workshop information will be posted as soon as information is available),
- 1 year for publication, including reconciliation of reviews from a journal, the NSHM Steering Committee, building code and other users, and the public, and
- Coordination with the next edition of the NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions for New Buildings and Other Structures (as well as the 2028 ASCE 7 Standard and 2030 International Building Code).
2023 NSHM Update Schedule The deadline for the earthquake hazard community to send published ground motion and source models, data, and methods for the 2023 NSHM is December 31, 2020. Only published (or accepted for publication), peer-reviewed data, methods, and models will be considered. The sooner they are brought to our attention, the more likely it is that we can include them, resources permitting.
Please bring the publications to our attention by emailing Allison Shumway with cc to Mark Petersen and Peter Powers. Allison Shumway will reply to confirm receipt and request additional information, if needed.
Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI)
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will publish an updated National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) in 2025. The PRVI model was last updated in 2003.
The updates for the Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) will follow the schedule below. The schedule allows for:
- 2 years of development, including evaluations of non-USGS source and ground motion models (e.g., NGA-Subduction GMMs),
- User feedback early and often (e.g., a kick-off public workshop in April 2023 [timed with the 2023 Annual Meeting of the Seismological Society of America being held in San Juan, Puerto Rico], and additional workshop(s) scheduled throughout the update process [Workshop information will be posted as soon as information is available]),
- 1 year for publication, including reconciliation of reviews from a peer-reviewed journal, the NSHM Steering Committee, building code and other users, and the public, and
- Coordination with the 2026 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions for New Buildings and Other Structures (as well as the 2028 ASCE7 Standard and 2030 International Building Code).
2025 NSHM Update Schedule for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI). The deadline for the earthquake hazard community to send published source and ground motion models, data, and methods for the 2025 PRVI NSHM is December 31, 2022. Only published (or accepted for publication), peer-reviewed data, methods, and models will be considered. The sooner they are brough to our attention, the more likely it is that we can include them in the updated model, resources permitting.
Please bring the publications to our attention by emailing Allison Shumway with cc to Mark Petersen and Julie Herrick. One of us will reply to confirm receipt and request additional information, if needed.