Absence of strain accumulation in the Shumagin seismic gap, Alaska, 1980-1987

Measurements of the deformation of a trilateration network in the Shumagin seismic gap in the interval 1980–1987 failed to detect any significant strain accumulation (observed extension rate in the direction of plate convergence 0.00±0.03 μstrain/yr). Dislocation models of the subduction process and measurements at a comparable network at a known seismic subduction zone (Nankai Trough, Japan) suggest that a rate of the order of −0.2 μstrain/yr should have been observed if the main thrust zone beneath the Shumagin Islands were locked. The simplest explanation of the observed absence of strain accumulation in the Shumagin seismic gap is that the main thrust zone beneath the Shumagin Islands is not presently locked. Other possible explanations depend upon very particular circumstances.