Analyzing land-use change scenarios for trade-offs among culturalecosystem services in the Southern Rocky Mountains

Significant increases in outdoor recreation participants are projected over the next 50 years for national forests
across the United States, with even larger increases possible for forests located in the Southern Rocky
Mountains. Forest managers will be challenged to balance increasing demand for outdoor recreation with other
ecosystem services. Future management needs could be better anticipated with information describing how and
where stakeholders value these forests’ cultural ecosystem services, as well as how management might impact
these values. We analyzed land-use change scenarios to quantify changes in aesthetic and recreational
ecosystem service values and assessed trade-offs between these values relative to forest stakeholder groups
defined by their attitudes regarding motorized recreation. We adapted the GIS tool, Social Values for Ecosystem
Services (SolVES), for scenario analysis and applied it to two national forests in the Southern Rocky Mountains
to examine impacts of road-network expansion on stakeholder values. Our approach allowed us to quantify
changes in the spatial distribution and intensity of aesthetic and recreation values. Trade-off assessments
between the two values indicated that areas of conflicting value changes were limited, even when accounting for
different user groups. However, this approach could be an important means of conflict resolution for multi-use
management.