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And the first one now will later be last: Time-reversal in cormack-jolly-seber models

June 15, 2016

The models of Cormack, Jolly and Seber (CJS) are remarkable in providing a rich set of inferences about population survival, recruitment, abundance and even sampling probabilities from a seemingly limited data source: a matrix of 1's and 0's reflecting animal captures and recaptures at multiple sampling occasions. Survival and sampling probabilities are estimated directly in CJS models, whereas estimators for recruitment and abundance were initially obtained as derived quantities. Various investigators have noted that just as standard modeling provides direct inferences about survival, reversing the time order of capture history data permits direct modeling and inference about recruitment. Here we review the development of reverse-time modeling efforts, emphasizing the kinds of inferences and questions to which they seem well suited.

Citation Information

Publication Year 2016
Title And the first one now will later be last: Time-reversal in cormack-jolly-seber models
DOI 10.1214/16-STS546
Authors James D. Nichols
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title Statistical Science
Series Number
Index ID 70173821
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization Patuxent Wildlife Research Center