James Nichols, Ph.D.
Dr. Jim Nichols conducts research on animal population dynamics and management
Recent Accomplishments
Education
- B.S. Wake Forest University, Biology, 1971
- M.S. Louisiana State University, Wildlife Management, 1973
- Ph.D. Michigan State University, Wildlife Ecology, 1976
Professional Studies/Experience
- Adaptive management and assessment of habitat changes on migratory birds
- Development of models of mallard population dynamics for adaptive harvest management
- Development of methods to estimate parameters associated with animal population dynamics
- Statistical methods for species richness estimation
- Technical Assistance -Tiger Monitoring and Population Research
- Development of methods for estimating patch occupancy and patch-dynamic parameters from detection-nondetection survey data
- Development of methods to estimate species richness and community-dynamic parameters from species list data
Mentorship/Outreach
Professional societies/affiliations/committees/editorial boardsScientific/Oral Presentations, Abstracts
Honors, awards, recognition, elected offices
- 2005 - U.S. Presidential Rank Award (Meritorious Senior Professional)
- 2004 - U.S. Geological Survey Meritorious Service Award
- 2004 - IFAS Scholar Award, University of Florida
- 1998 - Promoted to Senior Scientist, U.S. Geological Survey
- 1991 - The George W. Snedecor Award of the American Statistical Association
- 1991 - The Wildlife Society's Wildlife Publication Award for Monograph
- 1984 - Southeastern Section of the Wildlife Society, Outstanding Publication Award
Scientific/Oral Presentations, Abstracts
Science and Products
Development of Methods Associated with Animal Population Dynamics
The Challenge: Conservation and management of natural animal populations requires knowledge of their dynamics and associated environmental and management influences. Specifically, informed management requires periodic estimates of system state (e.g., population size) and models for projecting consequences of management actions for subsequent state dynamics. However, it is very difficult to draw...
Development of Patch Occupancy Models for Assessing the Spatial Distribution of Organisms
The Challenge: A variety of important questions about the conservation and management of natural resources requires information about the spatial distribution of organisms. For species of conservation concern, the size of a species’ range is a criterion used to assign species status as threatened or endangered. For invasive species and disease organisms, the dynamics of the species range expansion...
Statistical Research for the USGS - Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative
The Challenge: Since its inception in 2002 the USGS Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) has taken the lead in monitoring amphibian populations on Department of Interior lands. ARMI scientists work on a broad spectrum of species and management issues to address the core causes of amphibian declines. In many cases, research requires complex study designs and innovative methods. A key...
Evaluation of Potential Offshore Wind Projects in the Northeastern U.S. on Endangered Roseate Terns: Who is at Risk and When?
The Challenge: Terns in coastal areas of the Northeastern US likely will be impacted by construction and operation of offshore wind turbines. The “Cape Cod & Islands” (CCMA) area of Massachusetts is a particularly important area for the endangered Northwest Atlantic Roseate Tern (ROST) population as most ROSTs from throughout the breeding range (Nova Scotia to Long Island, New York) congregate...
Avian Indicators of Climate Change Based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey
Appropriate ecological indicators of climate change can be used to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and potentially to project the consequences of climate change. However, many of the available indicators for North American birds do not account for imperfect observation. We proposed to use correlated-detection occupancy models to develop indicators fro
SERAP: Assessment of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Terrestrial Species
Researchers from North Carolina State University and the USGS integrated models of urbanization and vegetation dynamics with the regional climate models to predict vegetation dynamics and assess how landscape change could impact priority species, including North American land birds. This integrated ensemble of models can be used to predict locations where responses to climate change are most lik
Filter Total Items: 409
Estimating northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) pair detection probabilities based on call-back surveys associated with long-term mark-recapture studies, 1993–2018
The northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina; hereinafter NSO) was listed as “threatened” under the Endangered Species Act in 1990 and population declines have continued since that listing. Given the species’ protected status, any proposed activities on Federal lands that might impact NSO require consultation with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and part of that consultation often includes
Authors
Katie M. Dugger, Alan B. Franklin, Damon B. Lesmeister, Raymond J. Davis, J. David Wiens, Gary C. White, James D. Nichols, James E. Hines, Charles B. Yackulic, Carl J. Schwarz, Steven H. Ackers, L. Steven Andrews, Larissa L. Bailey, Robin Bown, Jesse Burgher, Kenneth P. Burnham, Peter C. Carlson, Tara Chestnut, Mary M Conner, Krista E. Dilione, Eric D. Forsman, Scott A. Gremel, Keith A. Hamm, Dale R. Herter, J. Mark Higley, Rob B. Horn, Julianna M Jenkins, William L. Kendall, David W Lamphear, Christopher McCafferty, Trent L. McDonald, Janice A Reid, Jeremy T. Rockweit, David C. Simon, Stan G Sovern, James K. Swingle, Heather Wise
Range-wide sources of variation in reproductive rates of northern spotted owls
We conducted a range-wide investigation of the dynamics of site level reproductive rate of northern spotted owls using survey data from 11 study areas across the sub-species geographic range collected during 1993–2018. Our analytical approach accounted for imperfect detection of owl pairs and misclassification of successful reproduction (i.e., at least one young fledged) and contributed further in
Authors
Jeremy T. Rockweit, Julianna M Jenkins, James E. Hines, James D. Nichols, Katie Dugger, Alan B. Franklin, Peter C. Carlson, William L. Kendall, Damon B. Lesmeister, Christopher McCafferty, Steven H. Ackers, L. Steven Andrews, Larissa Bailey, Jesse Burgher, Kenneth P. Burnham, Tara E. Chestnut, Mary M Conner, Raymond J. Davis, Krista E. Dilione, Eric D. Forsman, Elizabeth M. Glenn, Scott A. Gremel, Keith A. Hamm, Dale R. Herter, J. Mark Higley, Rob B. Horn, David W Lamphear, Trent L. McDonald, Janice A Reid, Carl J. Schwarz, David C. Simon, Stan G Sovern, James K. Swingle, David Wiens, Heather Wise, Charles B. Yackulic
Synergistic interventions to control COVID-19: Mass testing and isolation mitigates reliance on distancing
Stay-at-home orders and shutdowns of non-essential businesses are powerful, but socially costly, tools to control the pandemic spread of SARS-CoV-2. Mass testing strategies, which rely on widely administered frequent and rapid diagnostics to identify and isolate infected individuals, could be a potentially less disruptive management strategy, particularly where vaccine access is limited. In this p
Authors
Emily Howerton, Matthew J. Ferrari, Ottar N Bjornstad, Tiffany L. Bogich, Rebecca K. Borchering, Chris P. Jewell, James D. Nichols, William J M Probert, Michael C. Runge, Michael J. Tildesley, Cecile Viboud, Katriona Shea
Invader removal triggers competitive release in a threatened avian predator
Invasive species can cause extinctions of native species and widespread biodiversity loss. Invader removal is a common management response, but the use of long-term field experiments to characterize effectiveness of removals in benefitting impacted native species is rare. We used a large-scale removal experiment to investigate the demographic response of a threatened native species, the northern s
Authors
David Wiens, Katie Dugger, J. Mark Higley, Damon B. Lesmeister, Alan B. Franklin, Keith A. Hamm, Gary C. White, Krista E. Dilione, David C. Simon, Robin R. Bown, Peter C. Carlson, Charles Yackulic, James D. Nichols, James E. Hines, Raymond J. Davis, David W. Lamphear, Christopher McCafferty, Trent L. McDonald, Stan G. Sovern
What is the effect of poaching activity on wildlife species?
Poaching is a pervasive threat to wildlife, yet quantifying the direct effect of poaching on wildlife is rarely possible because both wildlife and threat data are infrequently collected concurrently. In this study, we used poaching data collected through the Management Information System (MIST) and wildlife camera trap data collected by the Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) network
Authors
Jennifer F. Moore, Eustrate Uzabaho, Abel Musana, Prosper Uwingell, James E. Hines, James D. Nichols
Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making
More than 1.6 million Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) tests were administered daily in the United States at the peak of the epidemic, with a significant focus on individual treatment. Here, we show that objective-driven, strategic sampling designs and analyses can maximize information gain at the population level, which is necessary to increase situational awareness an
Authors
James D. Nichols, Tiffany L. Bogich, Emily Howerton, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Rebecca K. Borchering, Matthew J. Ferrari, Murali Haran, Christopher P. Jewell, Kim M. Pepin, William J. M. Probert, Juliet R. C. Pulliam, Michael C. Runge, Michael J. Tildesley, Cecile Viboud, Katriona Shea
Range-wide declines of northern spotted owl populations in the Pacific Northwest: A meta-analysis
The northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) inhabits older coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest and has been at the center of forest management issues in this region. The immediate threats to this federally listed species include habitat loss and competition with barred owls (Strix varia), which invaded from eastern North America. We conducted a prospective meta-analysis to assess
Authors
Alan B. Franklin, Katie M. Dugger, Damon B. Lesmeister, Raymond J. Davis, J. David Wiens, Gary C. White, James D. Nichols, James E. Hines, Charles B. Yackulic, Carl J. Schwarz, Steven H. Ackers, Andrew L. Stevens, Larissa L. Bailey, Robin G. Brown, Jesse Burgher, Kenneth P. Burnham, Peter C. Carlson, Tara Chestnut, Mary M Conner, Krista E. Dilione, Eric D. Forsman, Elizabeth M. Glenn, Scott A. Gremel, Keith A. Hamm, Dale R. Herter, J. Mark Higley, Rob B. Horn, Julianna M. Jenkins, William L. Kendall, David W Lamphear, Christopher McCafferty, Trent L. McDonald, Janice A Reid, Jeremy T. Rockweit, David C. Simon, Stan G. Sovern, James Swingle, Heather Wise
Opinion: A preferred approach for dealing with reproducibility and replicability in science
Science impacts our daily lives and guides national and international policies (1). Thus, results of scientific studies are of paramount importance; yet, there are concerns that many studies are not reproducible or replicable (2). To address these concerns, the National Research Council conducted a Consensus Study [NASEM 2019 (3)] that provides definitions of key concepts, discussions of problems,
Authors
James D. Nichols, Madan K. Oli, William L. Kendall, G. Scott Boomer
Integrated hierarchical models to inform management of transitional habitat and the recovery of a habitat specialist
Quantifying the contribution of habitat dynamics relative to intrinsic population processes in regulating species persistence remains an ongoing challenge in ecological and applied conservation. Understanding these drivers and their relationship is essential for managing habitat‐dependent species, especially those that specialize in transitional habitats. Limitations in the ability of natural dist
Authors
Mitchell Eaton, David Breininger, James D. Nichols, F. Paul, Samantha McGee, Michelle Smurl, David DeMeyer, Jonny Baker, Maria B. Zondervan
A multi-state occupancy modelling framework for robust estimation of disease prevalence in multi-tissue disease systems
Given the public health, economic and conservation implications of zoonotic diseases, their effective surveillance is of paramount importance. The traditional approach to estimating pathogen prevalence as the proportion of infected individuals in the population is biased because it fails to account for imperfect detection. A statistically robust way to reduce bias in prevalence estimates is to obt
Authors
Vratika Chaudhary, Samantha M Wisely, Felipe A Hernandez, James E. Hines, James D. Nichols, Madan K. Oli
Accumulating evidence in ecology: Once is not enough
Many published studies in ecological science are viewed as stand-alone investigations that purport to provide new insights into how ecological systems behave based on single analyses. But it is rare for results of single studies to provide definitive results, as evidenced in current discussions of the “reproducibility crisis” in science. The key step in science is the comparison of hypothesis-base
Authors
James D. Nichols, William Kendall, G.Scott Boomer
Confronting uncertainty: Contributions of the wildlife profession to the broader scientific community
Most wildlife professionals are engaged in 1 or both of 2 basic endeavors: science and management. These endeavors are a focus of many other disciplines, leading to widespread sharing of general methodologies. Wildlife professionals have appropriately borrowed and assimilated many methods developed primarily in other disciplines but have also led the development of one class of quantitative method
Authors
James D. Nichols
Science and Products
Development of Methods Associated with Animal Population Dynamics
The Challenge: Conservation and management of natural animal populations requires knowledge of their dynamics and associated environmental and management influences. Specifically, informed management requires periodic estimates of system state (e.g., population size) and models for projecting consequences of management actions for subsequent state dynamics. However, it is very difficult to draw...
Development of Patch Occupancy Models for Assessing the Spatial Distribution of Organisms
The Challenge: A variety of important questions about the conservation and management of natural resources requires information about the spatial distribution of organisms. For species of conservation concern, the size of a species’ range is a criterion used to assign species status as threatened or endangered. For invasive species and disease organisms, the dynamics of the species range expansion...
Statistical Research for the USGS - Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative
The Challenge: Since its inception in 2002 the USGS Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) has taken the lead in monitoring amphibian populations on Department of Interior lands. ARMI scientists work on a broad spectrum of species and management issues to address the core causes of amphibian declines. In many cases, research requires complex study designs and innovative methods. A key...
Evaluation of Potential Offshore Wind Projects in the Northeastern U.S. on Endangered Roseate Terns: Who is at Risk and When?
The Challenge: Terns in coastal areas of the Northeastern US likely will be impacted by construction and operation of offshore wind turbines. The “Cape Cod & Islands” (CCMA) area of Massachusetts is a particularly important area for the endangered Northwest Atlantic Roseate Tern (ROST) population as most ROSTs from throughout the breeding range (Nova Scotia to Long Island, New York) congregate...
Avian Indicators of Climate Change Based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey
Appropriate ecological indicators of climate change can be used to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and potentially to project the consequences of climate change. However, many of the available indicators for North American birds do not account for imperfect observation. We proposed to use correlated-detection occupancy models to develop indicators fro
SERAP: Assessment of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Terrestrial Species
Researchers from North Carolina State University and the USGS integrated models of urbanization and vegetation dynamics with the regional climate models to predict vegetation dynamics and assess how landscape change could impact priority species, including North American land birds. This integrated ensemble of models can be used to predict locations where responses to climate change are most lik
Filter Total Items: 409
Estimating northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) pair detection probabilities based on call-back surveys associated with long-term mark-recapture studies, 1993–2018
The northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina; hereinafter NSO) was listed as “threatened” under the Endangered Species Act in 1990 and population declines have continued since that listing. Given the species’ protected status, any proposed activities on Federal lands that might impact NSO require consultation with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and part of that consultation often includes
Authors
Katie M. Dugger, Alan B. Franklin, Damon B. Lesmeister, Raymond J. Davis, J. David Wiens, Gary C. White, James D. Nichols, James E. Hines, Charles B. Yackulic, Carl J. Schwarz, Steven H. Ackers, L. Steven Andrews, Larissa L. Bailey, Robin Bown, Jesse Burgher, Kenneth P. Burnham, Peter C. Carlson, Tara Chestnut, Mary M Conner, Krista E. Dilione, Eric D. Forsman, Scott A. Gremel, Keith A. Hamm, Dale R. Herter, J. Mark Higley, Rob B. Horn, Julianna M Jenkins, William L. Kendall, David W Lamphear, Christopher McCafferty, Trent L. McDonald, Janice A Reid, Jeremy T. Rockweit, David C. Simon, Stan G Sovern, James K. Swingle, Heather Wise
Range-wide sources of variation in reproductive rates of northern spotted owls
We conducted a range-wide investigation of the dynamics of site level reproductive rate of northern spotted owls using survey data from 11 study areas across the sub-species geographic range collected during 1993–2018. Our analytical approach accounted for imperfect detection of owl pairs and misclassification of successful reproduction (i.e., at least one young fledged) and contributed further in
Authors
Jeremy T. Rockweit, Julianna M Jenkins, James E. Hines, James D. Nichols, Katie Dugger, Alan B. Franklin, Peter C. Carlson, William L. Kendall, Damon B. Lesmeister, Christopher McCafferty, Steven H. Ackers, L. Steven Andrews, Larissa Bailey, Jesse Burgher, Kenneth P. Burnham, Tara E. Chestnut, Mary M Conner, Raymond J. Davis, Krista E. Dilione, Eric D. Forsman, Elizabeth M. Glenn, Scott A. Gremel, Keith A. Hamm, Dale R. Herter, J. Mark Higley, Rob B. Horn, David W Lamphear, Trent L. McDonald, Janice A Reid, Carl J. Schwarz, David C. Simon, Stan G Sovern, James K. Swingle, David Wiens, Heather Wise, Charles B. Yackulic
Synergistic interventions to control COVID-19: Mass testing and isolation mitigates reliance on distancing
Stay-at-home orders and shutdowns of non-essential businesses are powerful, but socially costly, tools to control the pandemic spread of SARS-CoV-2. Mass testing strategies, which rely on widely administered frequent and rapid diagnostics to identify and isolate infected individuals, could be a potentially less disruptive management strategy, particularly where vaccine access is limited. In this p
Authors
Emily Howerton, Matthew J. Ferrari, Ottar N Bjornstad, Tiffany L. Bogich, Rebecca K. Borchering, Chris P. Jewell, James D. Nichols, William J M Probert, Michael C. Runge, Michael J. Tildesley, Cecile Viboud, Katriona Shea
Invader removal triggers competitive release in a threatened avian predator
Invasive species can cause extinctions of native species and widespread biodiversity loss. Invader removal is a common management response, but the use of long-term field experiments to characterize effectiveness of removals in benefitting impacted native species is rare. We used a large-scale removal experiment to investigate the demographic response of a threatened native species, the northern s
Authors
David Wiens, Katie Dugger, J. Mark Higley, Damon B. Lesmeister, Alan B. Franklin, Keith A. Hamm, Gary C. White, Krista E. Dilione, David C. Simon, Robin R. Bown, Peter C. Carlson, Charles Yackulic, James D. Nichols, James E. Hines, Raymond J. Davis, David W. Lamphear, Christopher McCafferty, Trent L. McDonald, Stan G. Sovern
What is the effect of poaching activity on wildlife species?
Poaching is a pervasive threat to wildlife, yet quantifying the direct effect of poaching on wildlife is rarely possible because both wildlife and threat data are infrequently collected concurrently. In this study, we used poaching data collected through the Management Information System (MIST) and wildlife camera trap data collected by the Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) network
Authors
Jennifer F. Moore, Eustrate Uzabaho, Abel Musana, Prosper Uwingell, James E. Hines, James D. Nichols
Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making
More than 1.6 million Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) tests were administered daily in the United States at the peak of the epidemic, with a significant focus on individual treatment. Here, we show that objective-driven, strategic sampling designs and analyses can maximize information gain at the population level, which is necessary to increase situational awareness an
Authors
James D. Nichols, Tiffany L. Bogich, Emily Howerton, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Rebecca K. Borchering, Matthew J. Ferrari, Murali Haran, Christopher P. Jewell, Kim M. Pepin, William J. M. Probert, Juliet R. C. Pulliam, Michael C. Runge, Michael J. Tildesley, Cecile Viboud, Katriona Shea
Range-wide declines of northern spotted owl populations in the Pacific Northwest: A meta-analysis
The northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) inhabits older coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest and has been at the center of forest management issues in this region. The immediate threats to this federally listed species include habitat loss and competition with barred owls (Strix varia), which invaded from eastern North America. We conducted a prospective meta-analysis to assess
Authors
Alan B. Franklin, Katie M. Dugger, Damon B. Lesmeister, Raymond J. Davis, J. David Wiens, Gary C. White, James D. Nichols, James E. Hines, Charles B. Yackulic, Carl J. Schwarz, Steven H. Ackers, Andrew L. Stevens, Larissa L. Bailey, Robin G. Brown, Jesse Burgher, Kenneth P. Burnham, Peter C. Carlson, Tara Chestnut, Mary M Conner, Krista E. Dilione, Eric D. Forsman, Elizabeth M. Glenn, Scott A. Gremel, Keith A. Hamm, Dale R. Herter, J. Mark Higley, Rob B. Horn, Julianna M. Jenkins, William L. Kendall, David W Lamphear, Christopher McCafferty, Trent L. McDonald, Janice A Reid, Jeremy T. Rockweit, David C. Simon, Stan G. Sovern, James Swingle, Heather Wise
Opinion: A preferred approach for dealing with reproducibility and replicability in science
Science impacts our daily lives and guides national and international policies (1). Thus, results of scientific studies are of paramount importance; yet, there are concerns that many studies are not reproducible or replicable (2). To address these concerns, the National Research Council conducted a Consensus Study [NASEM 2019 (3)] that provides definitions of key concepts, discussions of problems,
Authors
James D. Nichols, Madan K. Oli, William L. Kendall, G. Scott Boomer
Integrated hierarchical models to inform management of transitional habitat and the recovery of a habitat specialist
Quantifying the contribution of habitat dynamics relative to intrinsic population processes in regulating species persistence remains an ongoing challenge in ecological and applied conservation. Understanding these drivers and their relationship is essential for managing habitat‐dependent species, especially those that specialize in transitional habitats. Limitations in the ability of natural dist
Authors
Mitchell Eaton, David Breininger, James D. Nichols, F. Paul, Samantha McGee, Michelle Smurl, David DeMeyer, Jonny Baker, Maria B. Zondervan
A multi-state occupancy modelling framework for robust estimation of disease prevalence in multi-tissue disease systems
Given the public health, economic and conservation implications of zoonotic diseases, their effective surveillance is of paramount importance. The traditional approach to estimating pathogen prevalence as the proportion of infected individuals in the population is biased because it fails to account for imperfect detection. A statistically robust way to reduce bias in prevalence estimates is to obt
Authors
Vratika Chaudhary, Samantha M Wisely, Felipe A Hernandez, James E. Hines, James D. Nichols, Madan K. Oli
Accumulating evidence in ecology: Once is not enough
Many published studies in ecological science are viewed as stand-alone investigations that purport to provide new insights into how ecological systems behave based on single analyses. But it is rare for results of single studies to provide definitive results, as evidenced in current discussions of the “reproducibility crisis” in science. The key step in science is the comparison of hypothesis-base
Authors
James D. Nichols, William Kendall, G.Scott Boomer
Confronting uncertainty: Contributions of the wildlife profession to the broader scientific community
Most wildlife professionals are engaged in 1 or both of 2 basic endeavors: science and management. These endeavors are a focus of many other disciplines, leading to widespread sharing of general methodologies. Wildlife professionals have appropriately borrowed and assimilated many methods developed primarily in other disciplines but have also led the development of one class of quantitative method
Authors
James D. Nichols