Application of the CO2-PENS risk analysis tool to the Rock Springs Uplift, Wyoming

We describe preliminary application of the CO₂-PENS performance and risk analysis tool to a planned geologic CO₂ sequestration demonstration project in the Rock Springs Uplift (RSU), located in south western Wyoming. We use data from the RSU to populate CO₂-PENS, an evolving system-level modeling tool developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory. This tool has been designed to generate performance and risk assessment calculations for the geologic sequestration of carbon dioxide. Our approach follows Systems Analysis logic and includes estimates of uncertainty in model parameters and Monte-Carlo simulations that lead to probabilistic results. Probabilistic results provide decision makers with a range in the likelihood of different outcomes. Herein we present results from a newly implemented approach in CO₂-PENS that captures site-specific spatially coherent details such as topography on the reservoir/cap-rock interface, changes in saturation and pressure during injection, and dip on overlying aquifers that may be impacted by leakage upward through wellbores and faults. We present simulations of CO₂ injection under different uncertainty distributions for hypothetical leaking wells and faults. Although results are preliminary and to be used only for demonstration of the approach, future results of the risk analysis will form the basis for a discussion on methods to reduce uncertainty in the risk calculations. Additionally, we present ideas on using the model to help locate monitoring equipment to detect potential leaks. By maintaining site-specific details in the CO₂-PENS analysis we provide a tool that allows more logical presentations to stakeholders in the region.