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A channel dynamics model for real-time flood forecasting

January 1, 1989

A new channel dynamics scheme (alternative system predictor in real time (ASPIRE)), designed specifically for real-time river flow forecasting, is introduced to reduce uncertainty in the forecast. ASPIRE is a storage routing model that limits the influence of catchment model forecast errors to the downstream station closest to the catchment. Comparisons with the Muskingum routing scheme in field tests suggest that the ASPIRE scheme can provide more accurate forecasts, probably because discharge observations are used to a maximum advantage and routing reaches (and model errors in each reach) are uncoupled. Using ASPIRE in conjunction with the Kalman filter did not improve forecast accuracy relative to a deterministic updating procedure. Theoretical analysis suggests that this is due to a large process noise to measurement noise ratio.

Publication Year 1989
Title A channel dynamics model for real-time flood forecasting
DOI 10.1029/WR025i004p00691
Authors Anne B. Hoos, Antonis D. Koussis, Guy O. Beale
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title Water Resources Research
Index ID 70015839
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse