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Climate-influenced phenology of larval fish transport in a large lake

June 5, 2024

Elucidating physical transport phenologies in large lakes can aid understanding of larval recruitment dynamics. Here, we integrate a series of climate, hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, and Lagrangian particle dispersion models to: (1) simulate hatch and transport of fish larvae throughout an illustrative large lake, (2) evaluate patterns of historic and potential future climate-induced larval transport, and (3) consider consequences for overlap with suitable temperatures and prey. Simulations demonstrate that relative offshore transport increases seasonally, with shifts toward offshore transport occurring earlier during relatively warm historic and future simulations. Intra- and inter-annual trends in transport were robust to assumed pelagic larval duration and precise location and timing of hatching. Larvae retained nearshore generally encountered more favorable temperatures and zooplankton densities compared to larvae transported offshore. Larval exploitation of nearshore resources under climate change may depend on a concomitant shift to earlier spawning and hatch times in advance of earlier offshore transport.

Publication Year 2024
Title Climate-influenced phenology of larval fish transport in a large lake
DOI 10.1002/lol2.10414
Authors Spencer T. Gardner, Mark D. Rowe, Pengfei Xue, Xing Zhou, Peter Alsip, David Bunnell, Paris D. Collingsworth, Edward S. Rutherford, Tomas O. Hook
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title Limnology and Oceanography Letters
Index ID 70254760
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization Great Lakes Science Center