Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043
June 13, 2016
Using information from recent earthquakes, improved mapping of active faults, and a new model for estimating earthquake probabilities, the 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities updated the 30-year earthquake forecast for California. They concluded that there is a 72 percent probability (or likelihood) of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking somewhere in the San Francisco Bay region before 2043. Earthquakes this large are capable of causing widespread damage; therefore, communities in the region should take simple steps to help reduce injuries, damage, and disruption, as well as accelerate recovery from these earthquakes.
Citation Information
| Publication Year | 2016 |
|---|---|
| Title | Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043 |
| DOI | 10.3133/fs20163020 |
| Authors | Brad T. Aagaard, J. Luke Blair, John Boatwright, Susan H. Garcia, Ruth A. Harris, Andrew J. Michael, David P. Schwartz, Jeanne S. DiLeo |
| Publication Type | Report |
| Publication Subtype | USGS Numbered Series |
| Series Title | Fact Sheet |
| Series Number | 2016-3020 |
| Index ID | fs20163020 |
| Record Source | USGS Publications Warehouse |
| USGS Organization | Earthquake Science Center; San Francisco Bay-Delta |