The effect of band loss on estimates of annual survival

Banding has proven to be a useful technique in the study of population dynamics of avian species. However, band loss has long been recognized as a potential problem, (Hickey, 1952; Ludwig, 1967). Recently, Brownie et al. (1978) presented 14 models based on an array of explicit assumptions for the analysis of band recovery data. Various estimation models (assumption sets) allowed survival and/or recovery rates to be (a) constant, (b) time-specific, or (c) time- and age-specific. Optimal inference methods were employed and statistical tests of critical assumptions were developed and emphasized.

The methods of Brownie et al. (1978), as with all previously published methods of which we are aware, assume no loss of bands during the study. However, some band loss is certain to occur and this potentially biases the estimates of annual survival rates whatever the analysis method. A few empirical studies have estimated band loss rates (a notable exception is Ludwig, 1967); consequently, for almost all band recovery data, the exact rate of band loss is unknown. In this paper we investigate the bias in estimates of annual survival rates due to varying degrees of hypothesized band loss. Our main results are based on perhaps the most useful model, originally developed by Seber (1970), for estimation of annual survival rate. Inferences are made concerning the bias of estimated survival rates in other models because the structure of these estimators is similar.