Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change
Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.
Citation Information
Publication Year | 2011 |
---|---|
Title | Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change |
DOI | 10.1175/2011EI378.1 |
Authors | Kathryn M. Koczot, Steven L. Markstrom, Lauren E. Hay |
Publication Type | Article |
Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
Series Title | Earth Interactions |
Index ID | 70040559 |
Record Source | USGS Publications Warehouse |
USGS Organization | California Water Science Center |