Effects of vehicle traffic on space use and road crossings of caribou in the Arctic

Assessing the effects of industrial development on wildlife is a key objective of managers and conservation practitioners. However, wildlife responses are often only investigated with respect to the footprint of infrastructure, even though human activity can strongly mediate development impacts. In Arctic Alaska, there is substantial interest in expanding energy development, raising concerns about the potential effects on barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti). While caribou generally avoid industrial infrastructure, little is known about the role of human activity in moderating their responses, and whether managing activity levels could minimize development effects. To address this uncertainty, we examined the influence of traffic volume on caribou summer space use and road crossings in the Central Arctic Herd within the Kuparuk and Milne Point oil fields on the North Slope of Alaska. We first modeled spatiotemporal variation in hourly traffic volumes across the road system from traffic counter data using gradient-boosted regression trees. We then used generalized additive models to estimate nonlinear step selection functions and road-crossing probabilities from collared female caribou during the post-calving and insect harassment seasons, when they primarily interact with roads. Step selection analyses revealed that caribou selected areas further from roads (~1–3 km) during the post-calving and mosquito seasons and selected areas with lower traffic volumes during all seasons, with selection probabilities peaking when traffic was