ENSO and PDO drive shoreline position anomalies in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Sandy beaches act as buffers against various coastal hazards but are vulnerable to episodic (seasonal) and chronic (interannual) erosion. Understanding the variation of shoreline position, a key metric in coastal morphology, over a spectrum of time scales is therefore crucial in assessing hazard vulnerability. Long-standing research has investigated the role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant mode of climate variability in the Pacific Basin, in seasonal shoreline variability. Yet, ENSO’s chronic influence—and that of another Pacific climate mode, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)—on shoreline anomalies remains poorly understood. Here, we examine the variability of sandy beaches in the US Pacific Northwest, a ∼750 km long coastal region on the US West Coast. We leverage 40 years (1984–2024) of shoreline data from publicly available Earth-observing (Landsat) satellite imagery at a high spatial resolution (>10,000 shore-normal transects at 50-m alongshore spacing) and employ Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM), a methodology for inferring causality in dynamical systems. We discover that strong El Niño years are signified by erosion (75.1% of transects), and strong La Niña years exhibit accretional behavior (73.4% of transects). Furthermore, we establish, for the first time, that both ENSO and PDO exert a statistically significant control on interannual shoreline variability, particularly on the alongshore component (in 95 and 100% of littoral cells, respectively), with water level fluctuations playing a critical role. This effort advances our understanding of the seasonal-to-interannual interactions between Pacific Basin climate variability and the PNW’s coastal morphodynamics, with implications for sediment management and coastal adaptation.