Research Oceanographer, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Science and Products
DUNEX Modeling Waves, Water Levels, Sediment Transport, and Shoreline Change
CoSMoS-COAST
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Northern California 3.2
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Southern California, v3.0, Phase 2
Fire (plus) flood (equals) beach: Coastal response to an exceptional river sediment discharge event
Reinterpreting the Bruun Rule in the context of equilibrium shoreline models
Global-scale changes to extreme ocean wave events due to anthropogenic warming
The application of ensemble wave forcing to quantify uncertainty of shoreline change predictions
Sediment connectivity: A framework for analyzing coastal sediment transport pathways
Connectivity provides a framework for analyzing coastal sediment transport pathways, building on conceptual advances in graph theory from other scientific disciplines. Connectivity schematizes sediment pathways as a directed graph (i.e., a set of nodes and links). This study presents a novel application of graph theory and connectivity metrics like modularity and centrality to coastal sediment dyn
Large-scale erosion driven by intertidal eelgrass loss in an estuarine environment
Sea-level rise exponentially increases coastal flood frequency
Steps to develop early warning systems and future scenarios of wave-driven flooding along coral reef-lined coasts
Blind testing of shoreline evolution models
A model ensemble for projecting multi‐decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century
Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise
A nonlinear, implicit one-line model to predict long-term shoreline change
Science and Products
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DUNEX Modeling Waves, Water Levels, Sediment Transport, and Shoreline Change
Large, collaborative field experiments such as DUNEX leverage observations of the coastal ocean made by multiple academic, agency, and NGO teams, providing the opportunity to grasp a broader picture of the forces responsible for coastal change. Despite deployment of many instruments, it’s impossible to measure everything, everywhere, at all times. Numerical models that represent the physical...CoSMoS-COAST
CoSMoS-COAST is a USGS-developed, large-scale coastal change prediction model. It seeks to model coastal change due to a variety of oceanographic and terrestrial processes across a multitude of spatiotemporal scales (e.g., local to national-scale). - Data
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Northern California 3.2
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS 3.2 for Northern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planneCoastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Southern California, v3.0, Phase 2
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level-rise scenarios, as well as long-term shoreline change and cliff retreat. Resulting projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) provide emergency responders a - Publications
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Fire (plus) flood (equals) beach: Coastal response to an exceptional river sediment discharge event
Wildfire and post-fire rainfall have resounding effects on hillslope processes and sediment yields of mountainous landscapes. Yet, it remains unclear how fire–flood sequences influence downstream coastal littoral systems. It is timely to examine terrestrial–coastal connections because climate change is increasing the frequency, size, and intensity of wildfires, altering precipitation rates, and acReinterpreting the Bruun Rule in the context of equilibrium shoreline models
Long-term (>decades) coastal recession due to sea-level rise (SLR) has been estimated using the Bruun Rule for nearly six decades. Equilibrium-based shoreline models have been shown to skillfully predict short-term wave-driven shoreline change on time scales of hours to decades. Both the Bruun Rule and equilibrium shoreline models rely on the equilibrium beach theory, which states that the beach pGlobal-scale changes to extreme ocean wave events due to anthropogenic warming
Extreme surface ocean waves are often primary drivers of coastal flooding and erosion over various time scales. Hence, understanding future changes in extreme wave events owing to global warming is of socio-economic and environmental significance. However, our current knowledge of potential changes in high-frequency (defined here as having return periods of less than 1 year) extreme wave events arThe application of ensemble wave forcing to quantify uncertainty of shoreline change predictions
Reliable predictions and accompanying uncertainty estimates of coastal evolution on decadal to centennial time scales are increasingly sought. So far, most coastal change projections rely on a single, deterministic realization of the unknown future wave climate, often derived from a global climate model. Yet, deterministic projections do not account for the stochastic nature of future wave conditiSediment connectivity: A framework for analyzing coastal sediment transport pathways
Connectivity provides a framework for analyzing coastal sediment transport pathways, building on conceptual advances in graph theory from other scientific disciplines. Connectivity schematizes sediment pathways as a directed graph (i.e., a set of nodes and links). This study presents a novel application of graph theory and connectivity metrics like modularity and centrality to coastal sediment dyn
Large-scale erosion driven by intertidal eelgrass loss in an estuarine environment
Seagrasses influence local hydrodynamics by inducing drag on the flow and dampening near-bed velocities and wave energy. When seagrasses are lost, near-bed currents and wave energy can increase, which enhances bottom shear stresses, destabilizes sediment, and promotes suspension and erosion. Though seagrasses are being lost rapidly globally, the magnitude of change in sediment stabilization followSea-level rise exponentially increases coastal flood frequency
Sea-level rise will radically redefine the coastline of the 21st century. For many coastal regions, projections of global sea-level rise by the year 2100 (e.g., 0.5–2 meters) are comparable in magnitude to today’s extreme but short-lived increases in water level due to storms. Thus, the 21st century will see significant changes to coastal flooding regimes (where present-day, extreme-but-rare eventSteps to develop early warning systems and future scenarios of wave-driven flooding along coral reef-lined coasts
Tropical coral reef-lined coasts are exposed to storm wave-driven flooding. In the future, flood events during storms are expected to occur more frequently and to be more severe due to sea-level rise, changes in wind and weather patterns, and the deterioration of coral reefs. Hence, disaster managers and coastal planners are in urgent need of decision-support tools. In the short-term, these toolsBlind testing of shoreline evolution models
Beaches around the world continuously adjust to daily and seasonal changes in wave and tide conditions, which are themselves changing over longer time-scales. Different approaches to predict multi-year shoreline evolution have been implemented; however, robust and reliable predictions of shoreline evolution are still problematic even in short-term scenarios (shorter than decadal). Here we show resA model ensemble for projecting multi‐decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century
Sea cliff retreat rates are expected to accelerate with rising sea levels during the 21st century. Here we develop an approach for a multi‐model ensemble that efficiently projects time‐averaged sea cliff retreat over multi‐decadal time scales and large (>50 km) spatial scales. The ensemble consists of five simple 1‐D models adapted from the literature that relate sea cliff retreat to wave impacts,Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise
Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, globalA nonlinear, implicit one-line model to predict long-term shoreline change
We present the formulation, validation, and application of a nonlinear, implicit one-line model to simulate long-term (decadal and longer) shoreline change. The purpose of the implicit numerical method presented here is to allow large time steps without sacrificing model stability compared to explicit approaches, and thereby improve computational efficiency. The model uses a Jacobian-free Newton-K - News