Establishing conservation benchmarks for threatened Bull Trout using spawner-recruitment relationships

Understanding the relationship between breeding adults and juvenile recruitment is fundamental to conserving at-risk species. Knowing whether recruitment is depensatory or compensatory at low adult abundances can aid in developing conservation strategies and recovery goals. However, this relationship requires long-term monitoring of two life stages, which can be costly and uncommon, especially for non-commercially harvested fish species, such as Bull Trout (Salvelinus confluentus). Listed as threatened in the United States and Canada, Bull Trout have declined throughout their range due to anthropogenic disturbances. Although spawner–recruitment relationships can create realistic recovery goals, this relationship is poorly characterized for Bull Trout. We used redd counts and juvenile densities from 11 Bull Trout populations to (1) establish spawner-recruitment dynamics, (2) assess environmental influences on productivity, and (3) derive recovery benchmarks. Bull Trout exhibited high recruitment productivity at low adult abundances and clear recruitment limitations at high abundances. Recruitment productivity varied across populations but was not associated with environmental covariates. We highlight strong compensatory capacity at low adult abundances, indicating possible recovery if limiting factors beyond spawning and rearing habitats are addressed.