Estimating Meher crop production using rainfall in the 'Long Cycle' region of Ethiopia

Meher season crop production is well correlated with April-May rainfall in the Ethiopian 'long cycle' crop growing region. This relationship is used to estimate 2003 Meher small farmer gross production at 87 =B1 10 million quintals (8.7 million MT² =B1 1 million MT) of cereals, pulses and other crops, using data from the Central Statistical Authority (CSA). Assuming recent levels of commercial and food aid imports, Belg production and population growth, this estimate will produce a food deficit of about 23 million quintals (2.3 million MT) for 2003-04, smaller than the one experienced during 2002-03 (34 million Qt, or 3.4 million MT), but similar to the deficit experienced in 1997-98. A long-term negative rainfall trend in the southwestern highlands may be aggravating the situation. Increasing food requirements and decreasing precipitation point toward chronic food shortages in the near future.