Extremal bounds on earthquake movement from geodetic data: Application to the Landers earthquake

We present a technique to place quantifiable bounds on the moment of an earthquake from geodetic data, assuming known fault geometry. Application of this technique to the 1992 Landers earthquake shows that the moment must have been between 0.84 and 1.15 × 10²⁰ Nm with 90% confidence (M 7.25 to 7.34). We also find that to satisfy the data to this same level of confidence, the slip on the fault must have exceeded 7 m in at least one location, in good agreement with field mapping of the surface rupture.