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Forecasting California’s earthquakes

January 1, 1988

The first official earthquake forecast for California emphasizes the broad extent of the hazard and the uncertainties involved in predicting the next quakes.

For the first time, researchers have reached to a consensus on the threat of large earthquakes to California, things look no worse for Los Angles than before. It still has about a 60 percent chance of being shaken by a large earthquake sometime during the next 30 years. But other heavily populated areas of California, such as San Bernardino and the East Bay area of San Francisco, are now getting their fair share of attention. The new consensus also points up the considerable uncertainties invloved in earthquake forecasting. 

Citation Information

Publication Year 1988
Title Forecasting California’s earthquakes
DOI
Authors R. A. Kerr
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title Earthquakes & Volcanoes (USGS)
Series Number
Index ID 70162685
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization