Historical cover trends in a sagebrush steppe ecosystem from 1985 to 2013: Links with climate, disturbance, and management

Understanding the causes and consequences of component change in sagebrush steppe is crucial for evaluating ecosystem sustainability. The sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) steppe ecosystem of the northwest USA has been impacted by the invasion of exotic grasses, increasing fire return intervals, changing land management practices, and fragmentation, often lowering the overall resilience to change. We utilized contemporary and historical Landsat imagery, field data, and regression tree models to produce fractional cover maps of rangeland components (shrub, sagebrush, herbaceous, bare ground, and litter) through the last 30 years. Our main goals were to (1) investigate rangeland component trends over 30 years, (2) evaluate the magnitude and direction of trends in components and climate drivers and their relationship, and (3) assess component trends influenced by climate. Results indicated that over the study period, shrub, sage, herbaceous, and litter cover decreased, while bare ground cover increased. Measured rates of change ranged from − 0.14% decade⁻¹ for shrub cover to 0.05% decade⁻¹ for bare ground, whereas herbaceous and litter cover trends were negligible. Net landscape cover changes were consistent with expectations of climate change and disturbance producing a loss of biotic cover, and converting a portion of shrub and sagebrush to herbaceous cover. Overall, fire and related successional recovery was the greatest change agent for all components in terms of area and cover change, while increasing minimum temperature, at a rate of 0.66°C decade⁻¹, was found to be the most significant climate driver.