Human factors used to estimate and forecast water supply and demand in the Delaware River Basin

The objective of this report by the U.S. Geological Survey is to identify cultural and economic determinants of water demand, supply, and access, and to locate associated datasets of those determinants. Although climate and its influence on hydrology are important components of water availability, this study focused only on the components of the human system. The Delaware River Basin (the area including Delaware Bay, and parts of four States including Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania) was used as a proxy. The basin covers approximately 13,600 square miles, supplies agricultural, municipal, and industrial water, and provides jobs for millions of people in the region. The most salient social and economic determinants affecting current water availability, as well as existing data sources on those determinants, were identified through a literature review.

Regional water availability results from complex interactions of water supply and demand, as well as hydrological and climatological interactions between institutions and economics. Following the definition of water availability from Herman-Mercer and others (2023), “access to a specific quantity and quality of water at a point in time and space, for a specific use, recognizing the social and economic value of water across uses and institutions that facilitate or hinder its impartial and efficient provisioning,” we identify human determinants influencing water supply and demand and provide examples from the extensive datasets available to estimate these determinants in the agricultural, municipal, and industrial water-use sectors, using the Delaware River Basin as a case study. We also reference determinants related to recreation and ecosystem services that influence water availability in the Delaware River Basin.

Gaps were found pertaining to best practices for prioritization of human determinants within water-availability assessments and a lack of consistent data collection across different scales. A major focus of the work identified a need to prioritize collection and refinement of the human determinants to improve water availability estimation and forecasting. We ascertained that predictions of water use in these sectors often fall short. Predictions may use approximations for changes in demand, such as population or economic activity. Changes in demand also may be influenced by political or other strategic behavior, which are more difficult to incorporate into predictions. Approximations and other assumptions about water supply and demand can be improved to better predict water availability. Therefore, there is an opportunity to further understand and use the fundamental human determinants of water supply and demand along with changing climate variables to predict water availability in the future.