The hydrogeology and development of a groundwater flow model are described for a 121-square-mile area in Pasco County, Florida. The hydrogeologic framework consists of the surficial aquifer--a thin blanket of sand--and the underlying carbonates of the upper Floridian aquifer. The aquifers are separated by a leaky sand and clay confining unit. The Cross Bar Ranch well field occupies 13 square miles and contains 17 production wells averaging about 700 feet deep and tapping the upper Florida aquifer. Procedures to calibrate, test sensitivity to input parameters, and validate the model 's accuracy are described. Pumping at 30 million gallons per day should result in 5 feet of decline in the water table of the surficial aquifer over an 8-square-mile area and in the potentiometric surface of the Upper Florida aquifer over a 15-square-mile area. Under the 45-million-per-day maximum permitted rate, drawdown should be 5 feet or more in the water table and potentiometric surface over areas of 16 and 28 square miles, respectively. At the center of pumping, water levels could decline 15 to 25 feet. The surficial aquifer could possibly be completely dewatered in a small area of the well field when pumping is at the maximum rate.
