An integrated statistical and deterministic hydrologic model for analyzing trace organic contaminants in commercial and high-density residential stormwater runoff

Urbanization can dramatically alter stormwater, both the quantity and quality, by engendering larger peak flows and through the introduction of contaminants into runoff. The current study builds on previous research that developed relationships between a suite of nonpoint source contaminants, known as trace organic contaminants (TOrCs), and hydrologic measurements for a series of storms (one site had 15 storms and the other had 19 storms) in Madison, WI, by creating statistical and deterministic models. Correlations and regressions were calculated between TOrC loads and hydrologic measurements for a series of storms for both a commercial site and a high-density residential site. From the regressions, it became evident that loading responses to precipitation were not the same between the two land covers for some TOrCs, indicating varying load responses for TOrCs depending on land cover. The regressions were utilized in the Source Loading and Management Model for Windows (WinSLAMM), an event-based hydrologic and water-quality model, to demonstrate that it can be used to model novel contaminants. The regressions were also used to estimate mean annual loads of TOrCs from all commercial and high-density residential areas in Madison, WI, for the watersheds to which Madison discharges its stormwater. The mean annual loads varied between grams per year to tens of thousands of grams per year depending on the TOrC and watershed. This work will ultimately allow managers to simulate the presence of, establish total maximum daily loads for, and mitigate the loads of TOrCs through stormwater best management practices.