Integrating quantitative macroeconomic and ecosystem service modeling methods to assess conservation rograms in Mexico

Conveying the importance of public conservation programs to Government decision makers is challenging given the long-term nature of investments in conservation and competition for scarce public resources. The effectiveness of conservation programs in terms of their impact on ecological and socioeconomic outcomes has been evaluated in the literature though not typically in an integrated way that enables the assessment of trade-offs across environmental, economic and social objectives. Through a novel approach that uses macroeconomic tools that incorporate land use-land cover change and ecosystem services, we conduct policy scenario analysis to investigate the economic, natural capital and ecosystem service impacts of three conservation programs in Mexico. We show their combined impact on Gross Domestic Product and wealth in 2035 to be US\$856.9 and US\$492.3 million, respectively and that the programs reduce poverty by 1,800 individuals. In addition to macroeconomic effects, our approach illustrates that by accounting for changes in regulating ecosystem service flows, cumulative Gross Domestic Product would be 1.34 times higher. Our results build a business case for ongoing investment and expansion of these conservation programs by demonstrating the benefits to biodiversity, natural capital and the economic well-being of Mexican society. The case study allows for replication in other countries as the tools and data employed are openly available for much of Latin America and the Caribbean, Southeast Asia and increasingly worldwide.