Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change
We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.
Citation Information
Publication Year | 2015 |
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Title | Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change |
DOI | 10.1089/vbz.2015.1822 |
Authors | Sadie J. Ryan, Amy McNally, Leah R. Johnson, Erin A. Mordecai, Tal Ben-Horin, Krijn P. Paaijmans, Kevin D. Lafferty |
Publication Type | Article |
Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
Series Title | Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases |
Index ID | 70159815 |
Record Source | USGS Publications Warehouse |
USGS Organization | Western Ecological Research Center |