Modeling of future COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, by vaccination rates and nonpharmaceutical intervention scenarios — United States, April–September 2021
What is already known about this topic?
Increases in COVID-19 cases in March and early April occurred despite a large-scale vaccination program. Increases coincided with the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants and relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).
What is added by this report?
Data from six models indicate that with high vaccination coverage and moderate NPI adherence, hospitalizations and deaths will likely remain low nationally, with a sharp decline in cases projected by July 2021. Lower NPI adherence could lead to substantial increases in severe COVID-19 outcomes, even with improved vaccination coverage.
What are the implications for public health practice?
High vaccination coverage and compliance with NPIs are essential to control COVID-19 and prevent surges in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming months.
Citation Information
| Publication Year | 2021 |
|---|---|
| Title | Modeling of future COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, by vaccination rates and nonpharmaceutical intervention scenarios — United States, April–September 2021 |
| DOI | 10.15585/mmwr.mm7019e3 |
| Authors | Rebecca K. Borchering, Cecile Viboud, Emily Howerton, Claire P. Smith, Shaun Truelove, Michael C. Runge, Nicholas G. Reich, Lucie Contamin, John Levander, Jessica Salerno, Wilbert van Panhuis, Matt Kinsey, Kate Tallaksen, R. Freddy Obrecht, Laura Asher, Cash Costello, Michael Kelbaugh, Shelby Wilson, Lauren Shin, Molly Gallagher, Luke Mullany, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Joseph Lemaitre, Juan Dent, Kyra Grantz, Joshua Kaminsky, Stephen Lauer, Elizabeth Lee, Hannah Meredith, Javier Perez-Saez, Lindsay T. Keegan, Dean Karlen, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Ajitesh Srivastava, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Bryan Lewis, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, James Schlitt, Patrick Corbett, Pyrros A. Telionis, Lijing Wang, Akhil S. Peddireddy, Benjamin Hurt, Jiangzhuo Chen, Anil Vullikanti, Madhav Marathe, Jessica Healy, Rachel B. Slayton, Matthew Biggerstaff, Michael A Johansson, Katriona Shea, Justin Lessler |
| Publication Type | Article |
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Series Title | Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report |
| Index ID | 70220496 |
| Record Source | USGS Publications Warehouse |
| USGS Organization | Eastern Ecological Science Center |