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Michael Runge, Ph.D.

Michael Runge is a research ecologist at the Eastern Ecological Science Center, where he has worked since 1999.  

 

Professional Experience

  • 2001-present Research Ecologist at USGS Eastern Ecological Science Center (Previously Patuxent Wildlife Research Center)

  • 2009 to 2010 visiting scientist at the University of Melbourne, School of Botany

  • 1989 to 1994 taught math and science at St. Francis High School in Louisville, Kentucky

Education and Certifications

  • B.A. in biology and philosophy (1989) from the Johns Hopkins University

  • M.A.T. (Master of Arts in Teaching) in biology (1994) from Spalding University

  • Ph.D. in wildlife science (1999),with minors in biometrics and agricultural economics, from Cornell University

Honors and Awards

  • Regional Director’s Award for Excellence in Communication. USGS Western Region.  November 2007.  “In recognition of outstanding science leading to enhanced understanding of the relation bet

  • Unit Award for Excellence of Service. U.S. Department of Interior.  November 2007.  In recognition of the outstanding contributions of the International Polar Bear Science Team

  • Unit Award for Excellence of Service. U.S. Department of Interior.  September 2007.  In recognition of introducing the adaptive management initiative across the Department

  • Regional Director’s Conservation Award, USFWS Region 4.  May 2007.  For contributions to and partnership in the science and recovery efforts of the Florida manatee.

  • Extraordinary Contribution.  Chief, National Wildlife Refuge System, USFWS.  June 2003.  For extraordinary contributions to Fulfilling the Promise.

  • Superior Service Award. United States Department of Interior.  October 2005.  For making your science available to natural resource managers for use in their management decisions

  • STAR Award - USFWS Region 5.  June 2004.  For outstanding contributions to improving wildlife management science on National Wildlife Refuges

  • STAR Award - USGS.  August 2003.  For supporting the USFWS in the manatee incidental take rule-making.

  • STAR Award - PWRC, U.S. Geological Survey.  January 2002.  For helping organize and present the Adaptive Management Workshop at the 2001 Wildlife Society Meeting.

  • STAR Award - PWRC, U.S. Geological Survey.  January 2002.  For helping organize and present the Adaptive Management Workshop at the 2001 Wildlife Society Meeting.

  • Gamma Sigma Delta.  Cornell University.  Election, May 1998.

  • Delta Epsilon Sigma.  Spalding University.  Election, April 1994.

  • Phi Beta Kappa.  Johns Hopkins University.  Election, March 1988.

  • Presidential Scholar.  The White House.  June 1985.

Science and Products

Filter Total Items: 15
link
Image: Northern Pintail Ducks

Disease Decision Analysis and Research

The Disease Decision Analysis and Research group is a multi-disciplinary team based out of the Eastern Ecological Science Center whose strengths are in ecology, decision sciences and quantitative modeling.
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Biological Threats and Invasive Species Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center
link

Disease Decision Analysis and Research

The Disease Decision Analysis and Research group is a multi-disciplinary team based out of the Eastern Ecological Science Center whose strengths are in ecology, decision sciences and quantitative modeling.
Learn More
link
Image: Black-Footed Ferret

COVID-19 Pathways and Wildlife Dynamics

Below are the USGS 2020 Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) research projects related to COVID-19 pathways and wildlife dynamics. Select tabs above for related items.
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Biological Threats and Invasive Species Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Western Fisheries Research Center
link

COVID-19 Pathways and Wildlife Dynamics

Below are the USGS 2020 Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) research projects related to COVID-19 pathways and wildlife dynamics. Select tabs above for related items.
Learn More
link
Close up of hibernating bats in a Vermont cave

Decision Science Support for SARS-CoV-2 Risk to North American Bats

The Eastern Ecological Science Center is working closely with federal, state, and tribal partners to help inform decisions that reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from humans to North American wildlife, including bats.
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center
link

Decision Science Support for SARS-CoV-2 Risk to North American Bats

The Eastern Ecological Science Center is working closely with federal, state, and tribal partners to help inform decisions that reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from humans to North American wildlife, including bats.
Learn More
link
Chronic wasting disease

Decision science support for Chronic Wasting Disease

Eastern Ecological Science Center adds the decision analytical skill set to the existing body of USGS expertise on Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD), in support of our sister DOI agencies.
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Biological Threats and Invasive Species Research Program, Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center
link

Decision science support for Chronic Wasting Disease

Eastern Ecological Science Center adds the decision analytical skill set to the existing body of USGS expertise on Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD), in support of our sister DOI agencies.
Learn More
link
Rainbow trout downstream of Glen Canyon Dam in the Colorado River

Is timing really everything? Evaluating Resource Response to Spring Disturbance Flows

Glen Canyon Dam has altered ecological processes of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Before the dam was built, the Colorado River experienced seasonable variable flow rates, including springtime flooding events. These spring floods scoured the river bottom and enhanced natural processes that sustained the Colorado River ecosystem. Since the dam’s construction in 1963, springtime floods have...
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Species Management Research Program, Southwest Biological Science Center
link

Is timing really everything? Evaluating Resource Response to Spring Disturbance Flows

Glen Canyon Dam has altered ecological processes of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Before the dam was built, the Colorado River experienced seasonable variable flow rates, including springtime flooding events. These spring floods scoured the river bottom and enhanced natural processes that sustained the Colorado River ecosystem. Since the dam’s construction in 1963, springtime floods have...
Learn More
link
Time-dependent Decisions Diagram

Markov decision processes in non-autonomous socio-ecological systems

Our ability to effectively manage natural resources is founded in an understanding of how our actions and the environment influence populations, communities, and ecosystems. Current practices use monitoring data from the past to determine key ecological relationships and make predictions about the future with the assumption that those relationships will remain constant. However, many natural syste
By
John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis
link

Markov decision processes in non-autonomous socio-ecological systems

Our ability to effectively manage natural resources is founded in an understanding of how our actions and the environment influence populations, communities, and ecosystems. Current practices use monitoring data from the past to determine key ecological relationships and make predictions about the future with the assumption that those relationships will remain constant. However, many natural syste
Learn More
link
Riparian birds

Informing Management of Waterfowl Harvest in a Changing Climate

The ability to effectively manage wildlife in North America is founded in an understanding of how human actions and the environment influence wildlife populations. Current management practices are informed by population monitoring data from the past to determine key ecological relationships and make predictions about future population status. In most cases, including the regulation of waterfowl hu
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Informing Management of Waterfowl Harvest in a Changing Climate

The ability to effectively manage wildlife in North America is founded in an understanding of how human actions and the environment influence wildlife populations. Current management practices are informed by population monitoring data from the past to determine key ecological relationships and make predictions about future population status. In most cases, including the regulation of waterfowl hu
Learn More
link
Manatee swims in a Florida spring

Population Ecology of Florida Manatees

USGS is working with partners to understand how the federally protected Florida manatee population changes over time and responds to threats.
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
link

Population Ecology of Florida Manatees

USGS is working with partners to understand how the federally protected Florida manatee population changes over time and responds to threats.
Learn More
link
Aedes albopictus mosquito

Environmental Management of Vector-borne Diseases

Effective management programs for vector-borne pathogens, such as West Nile Virus and the Lyme disease spirochete, are necessary to protect public health. However, some vector control methods, such as landscape manipulations and pesticide applications, can also adversely affect nontarget species and environmentally sensitive natural systems. Efficient targeting and integration of vector control...
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Biological Threats and Invasive Species Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center
link

Environmental Management of Vector-borne Diseases

Effective management programs for vector-borne pathogens, such as West Nile Virus and the Lyme disease spirochete, are necessary to protect public health. However, some vector control methods, such as landscape manipulations and pesticide applications, can also adversely affect nontarget species and environmentally sensitive natural systems. Efficient targeting and integration of vector control...
Learn More
link
Structured Decision Making. The PrOACT sequence captures the essential elements of any decision

Structured Decision Making

The biggest natural resource management challenges include competing views of the value and uses of those resources in society. Patuxent scientists develop methods to manage resources given those competing views under a “structured decision making” (SDM) framework. Our scientists both practice and train others in key SDM skills, such as model development and monitoring design.
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center
link

Structured Decision Making

The biggest natural resource management challenges include competing views of the value and uses of those resources in society. Patuxent scientists develop methods to manage resources given those competing views under a “structured decision making” (SDM) framework. Our scientists both practice and train others in key SDM skills, such as model development and monitoring design.
Learn More
link
Migratory birds in a wetland.

Decision-Support for Migratory Bird Management in the Face of Uncertainty

Migratory birds are responding to changes in climate in complex and sometimes unpredictable ways. The timing of breeding and migration typically coincide with the periods of peak food availability; however, these peaks are shifting as temperatures and precipitation patterns change, resulting in a mismatch in the timing of key events. The degree to which this mismatch is impacting migratory birds v
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Decision-Support for Migratory Bird Management in the Face of Uncertainty

Migratory birds are responding to changes in climate in complex and sometimes unpredictable ways. The timing of breeding and migration typically coincide with the periods of peak food availability; however, these peaks are shifting as temperatures and precipitation patterns change, resulting in a mismatch in the timing of key events. The degree to which this mismatch is impacting migratory birds v
Learn More
link
Northern Pintail, Anas acuta

Integrating Habitat and Harvest Management for Northern Pintails

The Challenge: Several blue-ribbon panels have challenged the waterfowl management world to recognize the linkages between the two primary management frameworks: harvest management under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act, and habitat management under the North American Waterfowl Management Plan. Because these two frameworks seek to manage the same populations, there needs to be better coordination, in...
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center
link

Integrating Habitat and Harvest Management for Northern Pintails

The Challenge: Several blue-ribbon panels have challenged the waterfowl management world to recognize the linkages between the two primary management frameworks: harvest management under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act, and habitat management under the North American Waterfowl Management Plan. Because these two frameworks seek to manage the same populations, there needs to be better coordination, in...
Learn More

Decision-Support Framework for Linking Regional-Scale Management Actions to Continental-Scale Conservation of Wide-Ranging Species

This data release presents the data, JAGS models, and R code used to manipulate data and to produce results and figures presented in the USGS Open File Report, "Decision-Support Framework for Linking Regional-Scale Management Actions to Continental-Scale Conservation of Wide-Ranging Species", (https://doi.org/10.5066/P93YTR3X). The zip folder is provided so that other can reproduce results from th
By
Eastern Ecological Science Center

An expert elicitation process to project the frequency and magnitude of Florida manatee mortality events caused by red tide (Karenia brevis)

Table summarizing results from expert elicitation process to project the frequency and magnitude of Florida manatee mortality events caused by red tide (Karenia brevis).
By
Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
No results found.
Filter Total Items: 150

The changing dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1: Next steps for management & science in North America

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 was introduced in North America in late 2021 through trans-Atlantic pathways via migratory birds. These introductions have resulted in an unprecedented epizootic, a widespread disease event in animals, heavily affecting poultry, wild birds, and recently mammals. The North American incursions occurred during the largest epidemic season (2021–2022
Authors
Johanna Harvey, Jennifer M. Mullinax, Michael C. Runge, Diann Prosser
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty

Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 r
Authors
Katriona Shea, Rebecca K. Borchering, William J M Probert, Emily Howerton, Tiffany L. Bogich, Shou-Li Li, Willem G. van Panhuis, Cecile Viboud, Ricardo Aguás, Artur A. Belov, Sanjana H. Bhargava, Sean M. Cavany, Joshua C. Chang, Cynthia Chen, Jinghui Chen, Shi Chen, YangQuan Chen, Lauren M. Childs, Carson C. Chow, Isabel Crooker, Sara Y. Del Valle, Guido España, Geoffrey Fairchild, Richard C. Gerkin, Timothy C. Germann, Quanquan Gu, Xiangyang Guan, Linhong Guo, Gregory R. Hart, Thomas J. Hladish, Nathaniel Hupert, Daniel Janies, Cliff C. Kerr, Daniel J. Klein, Eili Y. Klein, Gary Lin, Carrie Manore, Lauren A. Meyers, John E. Mittler, Kunpeng Mu, Rafael C. Nunez, Rachel J. Oidtman, Remy Pasco, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Rajib Paul, Carl A. B. Pearson, Dianela R. Perdomo, T. Alex Perkins, Kelly Pierce, Alexander N. Pillai, Rosalyn C. Rael, Katherine Rosenfeld, Chrysm W. Ross, Julie A. Spencer, Arlin B. Stoltzfus, Kok B. Toh, Shashaank Vattikuti, Alessandro Vespignani, Lingxiao Wang, Lisa J. White, X. Pan, Yupeng Yang, Osman N. Yogurtcu, Weitong Zhang, Yanting Zhao, Difan Zou, Matthew J. Ferrari, David Pannell, Michael J. Tildesley, J. Seiferth, Elyse Johnson, Matthew Biggerstaff, Michael A Johansson, Rachel B. Slayton, John Levander, Jeff Stazer, J. Kerr, Michael C. Runge

A simplified method for value of information using constructed scales

The value of information is a central concept in decision analysis, used to quantify how much the expected outcome of a decision would be improved if epistemic uncertainty could be resolved prior to committing to a course of action. One of the challenges, however, in quantitative analysis of the value of information is that the calculations are demanding, especially in requiring predictions of out
Authors
Michael C. Runge, Clark S. Rushing, James E. Lyons, Madeleine A. Rubenstein
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Climate Adaptation Science Centers, Eastern Ecological Science Center

Evaluating management alternatives for Wyoming elk feedgrounds in consideration of chronic wasting disease

Executive SummaryThe authors used decision and modeling analyses to evaluate management alternatives for a decision on whether to permit Cervus canadensis (elk) feeding on two sites on Bridger-Teton National Forest, Dell Creek and Forest Park. Supplemental feeding of elk could increase the transmission of chronic wasting disease (CWD) locally and disease spread regionally, potentially impacting el
Authors
Jonathan D. Cook, Paul C. Cross, Emily M. Tomaszewski, Eric K. Cole, Evan H. Campbell Grant, James M. Wilder, Michael C. Runge
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Biological Threats and Invasive Species Research Program, Species Management Research Program, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center

Unstructured-grid approach to develop high-fidelity groundwater model to understand groundwater flow and storage responses to excessive groundwater withdrawals in the Southern Hills aquifer system in southeastern Louisiana (USA)

Study regionThe Southern Hills aquifer system in the Louisiana Capital Area Groundwater Conservation District (CAGCD), USA.Study focusThe Southern Hills aquifer system provides abundant groundwater for public and industrial supplies in the CAGCD. Groundwater depletion, saltwater intrusion, and land subsidence are potential concerns due to prolonged excessive groundwater withdrawals. This study dev
Authors
Ye-Hong Chen, Hamid Vahdat-Aboueshagh, Frank T.-C. Tsai, Alyssa Dausman, Michael C. Runge

Qualitative value of information provides a transparent and repeatable method for identifying critical uncertainty

Conservation decisions are often made in the face of uncertainty because the urgency to act can preclude delaying management while uncertainty is resolved. In this context, adaptive management is attractive, allowing simultaneous management and learning. An adaptive program design requires the identification of critical uncertainties that impede the choice of management action. Quantitative evalua
Authors
Michelle L Stantial, Abigail Jean Lawson, Auriel M.V. Fournier, Peter J. Kappes, Chelsea S. Kross, Michael C. Runge, Mark S. Woodrey, James E. Lyons
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center

Proceedings of the Fiscal Year 2022 Annual Reporting Meeting to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program

(Hartwell) This report is prepared primarily to account for work conducted and products delivered in FY 2022 by GCMRC and to inform the Technical Work Group of science conducted by GCMRC and its cooperators in support of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP). It includes a summary of accomplishments, modifications to work plans, results, and recommendations related to projects i
Authors
David Topping, Paul Grams, Emily C. Palmquist, Joel B. Sankey, Helen C. Fairley, Bridget Deemer, Charles Yackulic, Theodore Kennedy, Anya Metcalfe, Maria C. Dzul, David Ward, Mariah Aurelia Giardina, Lucas Bair, Thomas Gushue, Caitlin M. Andrews, Ronald E. Griffiths, David Dean, Keith Kohl, Michael J Moran, Nicholas Voichick, Thomas A. Sabol, Laura A. Tennant, Kimberly Dibble, Michael C. Runge
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Southwest Biological Science Center

Context-dependent representation of within- and between-model uncertainty: Aggregating probabilistic predictions in infectious disease epidemiology

Probabilistic predictions support public health planning and decision making, especially in infectious disease emergencies. Aggregating outputs from multiple models yields more robust predictions of outcomes and associated uncertainty. While the selection of an aggregation method can be guided by retrospective performance evaluations, this is not always possible. For example, if predictions are co
Authors
Emily Howerton, Michael C. Runge, Tiffany L. Bogich, Rebecca K. Borchering, Hidetoshi Inamine, Justin Lessler, Luke C Mullany, William J.M. Probert, Claire P. Smith, Shaun Truelove, Cècile Viboud, Katriona Shea
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5–11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021–March 2022: A multi-model study

BackgroundThe COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5–11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains.MethodsTeams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scen
Authors
Rebecca K. Borchering, Luke C Mullany, Emily Howerton, Matteo Chinazzi, Claire P. Smith, Michelle Qin, Nicholas G. Reich, Lucie Contamin, John Levander, J. Kerr, J. Espino, Harry Hochheiser, Kaitlin Lovett, Matt Kinsey, Kate Tallaksen, Shelby Wilson, Lauren Shin, Joseph Lemaitre, Juan Dent Hulse, Joshua Kaminsky, Elizabeth C. Lee, Alison Hill, Jessica Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Ajitesh Srivastava, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srini Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Bryan Lewis, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, Benjamin Hurt, Jiangzhuo Chen, Henning Mortveit, Amanda Wilson, Madhav Marathe, Stefan Hoops, Parantapa Bhattacharya, Dustin Machi, Shi Chen, Rajib Paul, Daniel Janies, Jean-Claude Thill, Marta Galanti, Teresa Yamana, Sen Pei, Jeffrey L. Shaman, Guido España, Sean Cavany, Sean Moore, Alex Perkins, Jessica Healy, Rachel B. Slayton, Michael A Johansson, Matthew Biggerstaff, Katriona Shea, Shaun Truelove, Michael C. Runge, Cecile Viboud, Justin Lessler

Hurdles to developing quantitative decision support for Endangered Species Act resource allocation

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service oversees the recovery of many species protected by the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). Recent research suggests that a structured approach to allocating conservation resources could increase recovery outcomes for ESA listed species. Quantitative approaches to decision support can efficiently allocate limited financial resources and maximize desired outcomes. Y
Authors
Gwenllian D. Iacona, Stephanie Avery-Gomm, Richard F. Maloney, James Brazill-Boast, Deborah T. Crouse, C Ashton Drew, Rebecca S. Epanchin-Niell, Sarah B. Hall, Lynn A. Maguire, Tim Male, Jeff Newman, Hugh P. Possingham, Libby Rumpff, Michael C. Runge, Katherine C B Weiss, Robyn S. Wilson, Marilet A. Zablan, Leah R. Gerber
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

Structured decision making

No abstract available.
Authors
Michael C. Runge, J. Barry Grand, Michael S. Mitchell
By
Cooperative Research Units

Vote-processing rules for combining control recommendations from multiple models

Mathematical modelling is used during disease outbreaks to compare control interventions. Using multiple models, the best method to combine model recommendations is unclear. Existing methods weight model projections, then rank control interventions using the combined projections, presuming model outputs are directly comparable. However, the way each model represents the epidemiological system will
Authors
William J.M. Probert, Sam Nicol, Matthew J. Ferrari, Shou-Li Li, Katriona Shea, Michael J. Tildesley, Michael C. Runge

Decision-Support Tool to Estimate SARS-CoV-2 Human-to-bat Transmission Risk

This application is designed to evaluate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from humans to North American bats during winter field work and specifically surveys of winter roosts and hibernacula for white-nose syndrome.

By
Eastern Ecological Science Center

Decision-Support Tool to Estimate SARS-CoV-2 Human-to-bat Transmission Risk

Source code to run Shiny app of North American bat SARS2 risk model during winter fieldwork
By
Eastern Ecological Science Center
link

USGS scientists contribute to independent study evaluating why progress in achieving Bay water quality goals is lagging

Chesapeake Bay Program — Press Release — May 9, 2023

The report by the Chesapeake Bay Program’s Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee offers...

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One Health and Structured Decision Making

November 3 is One Health Day. One Health is the idea that the health of people is connected to the health of animals and our shared environment.

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link

USGS-Led Study Helps in the Fight Against the Coronavirus Pandemic

With few additional targeted tests and non-invasive surveys, public health agencies can better estimate disease occurrence and trends, changes in...

Read Article
link

Florida Manatees Likely to Persist For At Least 100 Years—US Geological Survey  

Florida’s iconic manatee population is highly likely to endure for the next 100 years, so long as wildlife managers continue to protect the marine...

Read Article
link

Media Inquiries on USGS Manatee Research

We appreciate your interest in USGS' Sirenia Project. To help inform members of the media and public, we have provided relevant publications, reports...

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link

New Methods Developed to Assess Climate Model Predictions

Evaluating the predictions associated with climate change just became easier with the development of new statistical methods designed to assess the...

Read Article

Science and Products

  • Science
    Filter Total Items: 15
    link
    Image: Northern Pintail Ducks

    Disease Decision Analysis and Research

    The Disease Decision Analysis and Research group is a multi-disciplinary team based out of the Eastern Ecological Science Center whose strengths are in ecology, decision sciences and quantitative modeling.
    By
    Ecosystems Mission Area, Biological Threats and Invasive Species Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center
    link

    Disease Decision Analysis and Research

    The Disease Decision Analysis and Research group is a multi-disciplinary team based out of the Eastern Ecological Science Center whose strengths are in ecology, decision sciences and quantitative modeling.
    Learn More
    link
    Image: Black-Footed Ferret

    COVID-19 Pathways and Wildlife Dynamics

    Below are the USGS 2020 Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) research projects related to COVID-19 pathways and wildlife dynamics. Select tabs above for related items.
    By
    Ecosystems Mission Area, Biological Threats and Invasive Species Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Western Fisheries Research Center
    link

    COVID-19 Pathways and Wildlife Dynamics

    Below are the USGS 2020 Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) research projects related to COVID-19 pathways and wildlife dynamics. Select tabs above for related items.
    Learn More
    link
    Close up of hibernating bats in a Vermont cave

    Decision Science Support for SARS-CoV-2 Risk to North American Bats

    The Eastern Ecological Science Center is working closely with federal, state, and tribal partners to help inform decisions that reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from humans to North American wildlife, including bats.
    By
    Ecosystems Mission Area, Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center
    link

    Decision Science Support for SARS-CoV-2 Risk to North American Bats

    The Eastern Ecological Science Center is working closely with federal, state, and tribal partners to help inform decisions that reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from humans to North American wildlife, including bats.
    Learn More
    link
    Chronic wasting disease

    Decision science support for Chronic Wasting Disease

    Eastern Ecological Science Center adds the decision analytical skill set to the existing body of USGS expertise on Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD), in support of our sister DOI agencies.
    By
    Ecosystems Mission Area, Biological Threats and Invasive Species Research Program, Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center
    link

    Decision science support for Chronic Wasting Disease

    Eastern Ecological Science Center adds the decision analytical skill set to the existing body of USGS expertise on Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD), in support of our sister DOI agencies.
    Learn More
    link
    Rainbow trout downstream of Glen Canyon Dam in the Colorado River

    Is timing really everything? Evaluating Resource Response to Spring Disturbance Flows

    Glen Canyon Dam has altered ecological processes of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Before the dam was built, the Colorado River experienced seasonable variable flow rates, including springtime flooding events. These spring floods scoured the river bottom and enhanced natural processes that sustained the Colorado River ecosystem. Since the dam’s construction in 1963, springtime floods have...
    By
    Ecosystems Mission Area, Species Management Research Program, Southwest Biological Science Center
    link

    Is timing really everything? Evaluating Resource Response to Spring Disturbance Flows

    Glen Canyon Dam has altered ecological processes of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Before the dam was built, the Colorado River experienced seasonable variable flow rates, including springtime flooding events. These spring floods scoured the river bottom and enhanced natural processes that sustained the Colorado River ecosystem. Since the dam’s construction in 1963, springtime floods have...
    Learn More
    link
    Time-dependent Decisions Diagram

    Markov decision processes in non-autonomous socio-ecological systems

    Our ability to effectively manage natural resources is founded in an understanding of how our actions and the environment influence populations, communities, and ecosystems. Current practices use monitoring data from the past to determine key ecological relationships and make predictions about the future with the assumption that those relationships will remain constant. However, many natural syste
    By
    John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis
    link

    Markov decision processes in non-autonomous socio-ecological systems

    Our ability to effectively manage natural resources is founded in an understanding of how our actions and the environment influence populations, communities, and ecosystems. Current practices use monitoring data from the past to determine key ecological relationships and make predictions about the future with the assumption that those relationships will remain constant. However, many natural syste
    Learn More
    link
    Riparian birds

    Informing Management of Waterfowl Harvest in a Changing Climate

    The ability to effectively manage wildlife in North America is founded in an understanding of how human actions and the environment influence wildlife populations. Current management practices are informed by population monitoring data from the past to determine key ecological relationships and make predictions about future population status. In most cases, including the regulation of waterfowl hu
    By
    Climate Adaptation Science Centers
    link

    Informing Management of Waterfowl Harvest in a Changing Climate

    The ability to effectively manage wildlife in North America is founded in an understanding of how human actions and the environment influence wildlife populations. Current management practices are informed by population monitoring data from the past to determine key ecological relationships and make predictions about future population status. In most cases, including the regulation of waterfowl hu
    Learn More
    link
    Manatee swims in a Florida spring

    Population Ecology of Florida Manatees

    USGS is working with partners to understand how the federally protected Florida manatee population changes over time and responds to threats.
    By
    Ecosystems Mission Area, Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
    link

    Population Ecology of Florida Manatees

    USGS is working with partners to understand how the federally protected Florida manatee population changes over time and responds to threats.
    Learn More
    link
    Aedes albopictus mosquito

    Environmental Management of Vector-borne Diseases

    Effective management programs for vector-borne pathogens, such as West Nile Virus and the Lyme disease spirochete, are necessary to protect public health. However, some vector control methods, such as landscape manipulations and pesticide applications, can also adversely affect nontarget species and environmentally sensitive natural systems. Efficient targeting and integration of vector control...
    By
    Ecosystems Mission Area, Biological Threats and Invasive Species Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center
    link

    Environmental Management of Vector-borne Diseases

    Effective management programs for vector-borne pathogens, such as West Nile Virus and the Lyme disease spirochete, are necessary to protect public health. However, some vector control methods, such as landscape manipulations and pesticide applications, can also adversely affect nontarget species and environmentally sensitive natural systems. Efficient targeting and integration of vector control...
    Learn More
    link
    Structured Decision Making. The PrOACT sequence captures the essential elements of any decision

    Structured Decision Making

    The biggest natural resource management challenges include competing views of the value and uses of those resources in society. Patuxent scientists develop methods to manage resources given those competing views under a “structured decision making” (SDM) framework. Our scientists both practice and train others in key SDM skills, such as model development and monitoring design.
    By
    Ecosystems Mission Area, Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center
    link

    Structured Decision Making

    The biggest natural resource management challenges include competing views of the value and uses of those resources in society. Patuxent scientists develop methods to manage resources given those competing views under a “structured decision making” (SDM) framework. Our scientists both practice and train others in key SDM skills, such as model development and monitoring design.
    Learn More
    link
    Migratory birds in a wetland.

    Decision-Support for Migratory Bird Management in the Face of Uncertainty

    Migratory birds are responding to changes in climate in complex and sometimes unpredictable ways. The timing of breeding and migration typically coincide with the periods of peak food availability; however, these peaks are shifting as temperatures and precipitation patterns change, resulting in a mismatch in the timing of key events. The degree to which this mismatch is impacting migratory birds v
    By
    Climate Adaptation Science Centers
    link

    Decision-Support for Migratory Bird Management in the Face of Uncertainty

    Migratory birds are responding to changes in climate in complex and sometimes unpredictable ways. The timing of breeding and migration typically coincide with the periods of peak food availability; however, these peaks are shifting as temperatures and precipitation patterns change, resulting in a mismatch in the timing of key events. The degree to which this mismatch is impacting migratory birds v
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    Northern Pintail, Anas acuta

    Integrating Habitat and Harvest Management for Northern Pintails

    The Challenge: Several blue-ribbon panels have challenged the waterfowl management world to recognize the linkages between the two primary management frameworks: harvest management under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act, and habitat management under the North American Waterfowl Management Plan. Because these two frameworks seek to manage the same populations, there needs to be better coordination, in...
    By
    Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center
    link

    Integrating Habitat and Harvest Management for Northern Pintails

    The Challenge: Several blue-ribbon panels have challenged the waterfowl management world to recognize the linkages between the two primary management frameworks: harvest management under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act, and habitat management under the North American Waterfowl Management Plan. Because these two frameworks seek to manage the same populations, there needs to be better coordination, in...
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  • Data

    Decision-Support Framework for Linking Regional-Scale Management Actions to Continental-Scale Conservation of Wide-Ranging Species

    This data release presents the data, JAGS models, and R code used to manipulate data and to produce results and figures presented in the USGS Open File Report, "Decision-Support Framework for Linking Regional-Scale Management Actions to Continental-Scale Conservation of Wide-Ranging Species", (https://doi.org/10.5066/P93YTR3X). The zip folder is provided so that other can reproduce results from th
    By
    Eastern Ecological Science Center

    An expert elicitation process to project the frequency and magnitude of Florida manatee mortality events caused by red tide (Karenia brevis)

    Table summarizing results from expert elicitation process to project the frequency and magnitude of Florida manatee mortality events caused by red tide (Karenia brevis).
    By
    Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
  • Multimedia
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  • Publications
    Filter Total Items: 150

    The changing dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1: Next steps for management & science in North America

    Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 was introduced in North America in late 2021 through trans-Atlantic pathways via migratory birds. These introductions have resulted in an unprecedented epizootic, a widespread disease event in animals, heavily affecting poultry, wild birds, and recently mammals. The North American incursions occurred during the largest epidemic season (2021–2022
    Authors
    Johanna Harvey, Jennifer M. Mullinax, Michael C. Runge, Diann Prosser
    By
    Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

    Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty

    Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 r
    Authors
    Katriona Shea, Rebecca K. Borchering, William J M Probert, Emily Howerton, Tiffany L. Bogich, Shou-Li Li, Willem G. van Panhuis, Cecile Viboud, Ricardo Aguás, Artur A. Belov, Sanjana H. Bhargava, Sean M. Cavany, Joshua C. Chang, Cynthia Chen, Jinghui Chen, Shi Chen, YangQuan Chen, Lauren M. Childs, Carson C. Chow, Isabel Crooker, Sara Y. Del Valle, Guido España, Geoffrey Fairchild, Richard C. Gerkin, Timothy C. Germann, Quanquan Gu, Xiangyang Guan, Linhong Guo, Gregory R. Hart, Thomas J. Hladish, Nathaniel Hupert, Daniel Janies, Cliff C. Kerr, Daniel J. Klein, Eili Y. Klein, Gary Lin, Carrie Manore, Lauren A. Meyers, John E. Mittler, Kunpeng Mu, Rafael C. Nunez, Rachel J. Oidtman, Remy Pasco, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Rajib Paul, Carl A. B. Pearson, Dianela R. Perdomo, T. Alex Perkins, Kelly Pierce, Alexander N. Pillai, Rosalyn C. Rael, Katherine Rosenfeld, Chrysm W. Ross, Julie A. Spencer, Arlin B. Stoltzfus, Kok B. Toh, Shashaank Vattikuti, Alessandro Vespignani, Lingxiao Wang, Lisa J. White, X. Pan, Yupeng Yang, Osman N. Yogurtcu, Weitong Zhang, Yanting Zhao, Difan Zou, Matthew J. Ferrari, David Pannell, Michael J. Tildesley, J. Seiferth, Elyse Johnson, Matthew Biggerstaff, Michael A Johansson, Rachel B. Slayton, John Levander, Jeff Stazer, J. Kerr, Michael C. Runge

    A simplified method for value of information using constructed scales

    The value of information is a central concept in decision analysis, used to quantify how much the expected outcome of a decision would be improved if epistemic uncertainty could be resolved prior to committing to a course of action. One of the challenges, however, in quantitative analysis of the value of information is that the calculations are demanding, especially in requiring predictions of out
    Authors
    Michael C. Runge, Clark S. Rushing, James E. Lyons, Madeleine A. Rubenstein
    By
    Ecosystems Mission Area, Climate Adaptation Science Centers, Eastern Ecological Science Center

    Evaluating management alternatives for Wyoming elk feedgrounds in consideration of chronic wasting disease

    Executive SummaryThe authors used decision and modeling analyses to evaluate management alternatives for a decision on whether to permit Cervus canadensis (elk) feeding on two sites on Bridger-Teton National Forest, Dell Creek and Forest Park. Supplemental feeding of elk could increase the transmission of chronic wasting disease (CWD) locally and disease spread regionally, potentially impacting el
    Authors
    Jonathan D. Cook, Paul C. Cross, Emily M. Tomaszewski, Eric K. Cole, Evan H. Campbell Grant, James M. Wilder, Michael C. Runge
    By
    Ecosystems Mission Area, Biological Threats and Invasive Species Research Program, Species Management Research Program, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center

    Unstructured-grid approach to develop high-fidelity groundwater model to understand groundwater flow and storage responses to excessive groundwater withdrawals in the Southern Hills aquifer system in southeastern Louisiana (USA)

    Study regionThe Southern Hills aquifer system in the Louisiana Capital Area Groundwater Conservation District (CAGCD), USA.Study focusThe Southern Hills aquifer system provides abundant groundwater for public and industrial supplies in the CAGCD. Groundwater depletion, saltwater intrusion, and land subsidence are potential concerns due to prolonged excessive groundwater withdrawals. This study dev
    Authors
    Ye-Hong Chen, Hamid Vahdat-Aboueshagh, Frank T.-C. Tsai, Alyssa Dausman, Michael C. Runge

    Qualitative value of information provides a transparent and repeatable method for identifying critical uncertainty

    Conservation decisions are often made in the face of uncertainty because the urgency to act can preclude delaying management while uncertainty is resolved. In this context, adaptive management is attractive, allowing simultaneous management and learning. An adaptive program design requires the identification of critical uncertainties that impede the choice of management action. Quantitative evalua
    Authors
    Michelle L Stantial, Abigail Jean Lawson, Auriel M.V. Fournier, Peter J. Kappes, Chelsea S. Kross, Michael C. Runge, Mark S. Woodrey, James E. Lyons
    By
    Ecosystems Mission Area, Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center

    Proceedings of the Fiscal Year 2022 Annual Reporting Meeting to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program

    (Hartwell) This report is prepared primarily to account for work conducted and products delivered in FY 2022 by GCMRC and to inform the Technical Work Group of science conducted by GCMRC and its cooperators in support of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP). It includes a summary of accomplishments, modifications to work plans, results, and recommendations related to projects i
    Authors
    David Topping, Paul Grams, Emily C. Palmquist, Joel B. Sankey, Helen C. Fairley, Bridget Deemer, Charles Yackulic, Theodore Kennedy, Anya Metcalfe, Maria C. Dzul, David Ward, Mariah Aurelia Giardina, Lucas Bair, Thomas Gushue, Caitlin M. Andrews, Ronald E. Griffiths, David Dean, Keith Kohl, Michael J Moran, Nicholas Voichick, Thomas A. Sabol, Laura A. Tennant, Kimberly Dibble, Michael C. Runge
    By
    Ecosystems Mission Area, Southwest Biological Science Center

    Context-dependent representation of within- and between-model uncertainty: Aggregating probabilistic predictions in infectious disease epidemiology

    Probabilistic predictions support public health planning and decision making, especially in infectious disease emergencies. Aggregating outputs from multiple models yields more robust predictions of outcomes and associated uncertainty. While the selection of an aggregation method can be guided by retrospective performance evaluations, this is not always possible. For example, if predictions are co
    Authors
    Emily Howerton, Michael C. Runge, Tiffany L. Bogich, Rebecca K. Borchering, Hidetoshi Inamine, Justin Lessler, Luke C Mullany, William J.M. Probert, Claire P. Smith, Shaun Truelove, Cècile Viboud, Katriona Shea
    By
    Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

    Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5–11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021–March 2022: A multi-model study

    BackgroundThe COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5–11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains.MethodsTeams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scen
    Authors
    Rebecca K. Borchering, Luke C Mullany, Emily Howerton, Matteo Chinazzi, Claire P. Smith, Michelle Qin, Nicholas G. Reich, Lucie Contamin, John Levander, J. Kerr, J. Espino, Harry Hochheiser, Kaitlin Lovett, Matt Kinsey, Kate Tallaksen, Shelby Wilson, Lauren Shin, Joseph Lemaitre, Juan Dent Hulse, Joshua Kaminsky, Elizabeth C. Lee, Alison Hill, Jessica Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Ajitesh Srivastava, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srini Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Bryan Lewis, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, Benjamin Hurt, Jiangzhuo Chen, Henning Mortveit, Amanda Wilson, Madhav Marathe, Stefan Hoops, Parantapa Bhattacharya, Dustin Machi, Shi Chen, Rajib Paul, Daniel Janies, Jean-Claude Thill, Marta Galanti, Teresa Yamana, Sen Pei, Jeffrey L. Shaman, Guido España, Sean Cavany, Sean Moore, Alex Perkins, Jessica Healy, Rachel B. Slayton, Michael A Johansson, Matthew Biggerstaff, Katriona Shea, Shaun Truelove, Michael C. Runge, Cecile Viboud, Justin Lessler

    Hurdles to developing quantitative decision support for Endangered Species Act resource allocation

    The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service oversees the recovery of many species protected by the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). Recent research suggests that a structured approach to allocating conservation resources could increase recovery outcomes for ESA listed species. Quantitative approaches to decision support can efficiently allocate limited financial resources and maximize desired outcomes. Y
    Authors
    Gwenllian D. Iacona, Stephanie Avery-Gomm, Richard F. Maloney, James Brazill-Boast, Deborah T. Crouse, C Ashton Drew, Rebecca S. Epanchin-Niell, Sarah B. Hall, Lynn A. Maguire, Tim Male, Jeff Newman, Hugh P. Possingham, Libby Rumpff, Michael C. Runge, Katherine C B Weiss, Robyn S. Wilson, Marilet A. Zablan, Leah R. Gerber
    By
    Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

    Structured decision making

    No abstract available.
    Authors
    Michael C. Runge, J. Barry Grand, Michael S. Mitchell
    By
    Cooperative Research Units

    Vote-processing rules for combining control recommendations from multiple models

    Mathematical modelling is used during disease outbreaks to compare control interventions. Using multiple models, the best method to combine model recommendations is unclear. Existing methods weight model projections, then rank control interventions using the combined projections, presuming model outputs are directly comparable. However, the way each model represents the epidemiological system will
    Authors
    William J.M. Probert, Sam Nicol, Matthew J. Ferrari, Shou-Li Li, Katriona Shea, Michael J. Tildesley, Michael C. Runge
  • Web Tools

    Decision-Support Tool to Estimate SARS-CoV-2 Human-to-bat Transmission Risk

    This application is designed to evaluate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from humans to North American bats during winter field work and specifically surveys of winter roosts and hibernacula for white-nose syndrome.

    By
    Eastern Ecological Science Center
  • Software

    Decision-Support Tool to Estimate SARS-CoV-2 Human-to-bat Transmission Risk

    Source code to run Shiny app of North American bat SARS2 risk model during winter fieldwork
    By
    Eastern Ecological Science Center
  • News
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    USGS scientists contribute to independent study evaluating why progress in achieving Bay water quality goals is lagging

    Chesapeake Bay Program — Press Release — May 9, 2023

    The report by the Chesapeake Bay Program’s Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee offers...

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    One Health and Structured Decision Making

    November 3 is One Health Day. One Health is the idea that the health of people is connected to the health of animals and our shared environment.

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    USGS-Led Study Helps in the Fight Against the Coronavirus Pandemic

    With few additional targeted tests and non-invasive surveys, public health agencies can better estimate disease occurrence and trends, changes in...

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    Florida Manatees Likely to Persist For At Least 100 Years—US Geological Survey  

    Florida’s iconic manatee population is highly likely to endure for the next 100 years, so long as wildlife managers continue to protect the marine...

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    Media Inquiries on USGS Manatee Research

    We appreciate your interest in USGS' Sirenia Project. To help inform members of the media and public, we have provided relevant publications, reports...

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    New Methods Developed to Assess Climate Model Predictions

    Evaluating the predictions associated with climate change just became easier with the development of new statistical methods designed to assess the...

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