Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

More fault connectivity Is needed in seismic hazard analysis

November 3, 2020

Did the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) go overboard with multifault ruptures? Schwartz (2018) argues that there are too many long ruptures in the model. Here, I address his concern and show that the UCERF3 rupture‐length distribution matches empirical data. I also present evidence that, if anything, the UCERF3 model could be improved by adding more connectivity to the fault system. Adding more connectivity would improve model misfits with data, particularly with paleoseismic data on the southern San Andreas fault; make the model less characteristic on the faults; potentially improve aftershock forecasts; and reduce model sensitivity to inadequacies and unknowns in the modeled fault system.

Citation Information

Publication Year 2020
Title More fault connectivity Is needed in seismic hazard analysis
DOI 10.1785/0120200119
Authors Morgan T. Page
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Index ID 70222400
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization Earthquake Science Center

Related Content