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The nature of earthquake prediction

January 1, 1991

Earthquake prediction is inherently statistical. Although some people continue to think of earthquake prediction as the specification of the time, place, and magnitude of a future earthquake, it has been clear for at least a decade that this is an unrealistic and unreasonable definition. the reality is that earthquake prediction starts from the long-term forecasts of place and magnitude, with very approximate time constraints, and progresses, at least in principle, to a gradual narrowing of the time window as data and understanding permit. Primitive long-term forecasts are clearly possible at this time on a few well-characterized fault systems. Tightly focuses monitoring experiments aimed at short-term prediction are already underway in Parkfield, California, and in the Tokai region in Japan; only time will tell how much progress will be possible. 

Publication Year 1991
Title The nature of earthquake prediction
Authors A.G. Lindh
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title Earthquakes & Volcanoes (USGS)
Index ID 70168527
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse