A new reserve growth model for United States oil and gas fields
Reserve (or field) growth, which is an appreciation of total ultimate reserves through time, is a well-recognized phenomenon, particularly in mature petroleum provinces. The importance of forecasting reserve growth accurately in a mature petroleum province made it necessary to develop improved growth functions, and a critical review of the original Arrington method was undertaken. During a five-year (1992-1996), the original Arrington method gave 1.03% higher than the actual oil reserve growth, whereas the proposed modified method gave a value within 0.3% of the actual growth, and therefore it was accepted for the development for reserve growth models. During a five-year (1992-1996), the USGS 1995 National Assessment gave 39.3% higher oil and 33.6% lower gas than the actual growths, whereas the new model based on Modified Arrington method gave 11.9% higher oil and 29.8% lower gas than the actual growths. The new models forecast predict reserve growths of 4.2 billion barrels of oil (2.7%) and 30.2 trillion cubic feet of gas (5.4%) for the conterminous U.S. for the next five years (1997-2001). ?? 2005 International Association for Mathematical Geology.
Citation Information
Publication Year | 2005 |
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Title | A new reserve growth model for United States oil and gas fields |
DOI | 10.1007/s11053-005-6950-4 |
Authors | M.K. Verma |
Publication Type | Article |
Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
Series Title | Natural Resources Research |
Index ID | 70031616 |
Record Source | USGS Publications Warehouse |