An oilspill risk analysis for the southern California (proposed sale 48) Outer Continental Shelf lease area

An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the Southern California Outer Continental Shelf lease area. The study analyzed the probability of spill occurrences, likely paths of the spilled oil, and locations in space and time of such objects as recreational and biological resources likely to be vulnerable. These results combined yield estimates of the overall oilspill risks associated with development of the proposed lease area. The analysis implicitly includes estimates of weathering rates and slick dispersion and an indication of the possible mitigating effects of cleanups. The leasing of the tracts proposed for Sale 48 will increase the expected number of spills by about 50-55% over the number expected from the existing Federal leases. The probability that an object, such as land, will be contacted by a spill is increased by less than 17 percentage points; however, this increase varies greatly for the different objects.