A pore-pressure diffusion model for estimating landslide-inducing rainfall

Many types of landslide movement are induced by large rainstorms, and empirical rainfall intensity/duration thresholds for initiating movement have been determined for various parts of the world. In this paper, I present a simple pressure diffusion model that provides a physically based hydrologic link between rainfall intensity/duration at the ground surface and destabilizing pore-water pressures at depth. The model approximates rainfall infiltration as a sinusoidally varying flux over time and uses physical parameters that can be determined independently. If destabilizing pore pressures can be estimated, then the model enables the development of a stability criterion defining destabilizing rainfall intensity/duration conditions. Using a comprehensive data set from an intensively monitored landslide, I demonstrate that the model is capable of distinguishing movement-inducing rainstorms.