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Predictive models of phosphorus concentration and load in stormwater runoff from small urban residential watersheds in fall season

June 20, 2022

Urban street trees are a key part of public green infrastructure in many cities, however, leaf litter on streets is a critical biogenic source of phosphorus (P) in urban stormwater runoff during Fall. This study identified mass of street leaf litter (Mleaf) and antecedent dry days (ADD) as the top two explanatory parameters that have significant predictive power of event end-of-pipe P concentrations through multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. Mleaf and volume of runoff (Vol) were the top two key explanatory parameters of event end-of-pipe P loads. Two-predictor MLR models were developed with these explanatory parameters using a 40-storm dataset derived from six small urban residential watersheds in Wisconsin, USA, and evaluated using storms specific to each study basin. The MLR model validation results indicated sensitivity to storm composition in the datasets. Our analysis shows selected parameters can be used by environmental managers to facilitate end-of-pipe P prediction in urban areas. This information can be used to reduce the amount of P in stormwater runoff by adjusting the timing and frequency of municipal leaf collection and street cleaning programs in urban areas.

Citation Information

Publication Year 2022
Title Predictive models of phosphorus concentration and load in stormwater runoff from small urban residential watersheds in fall season
DOI 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115171
Authors Yi Wang, Anita Thompson, William R. Selbig
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title Journal of Environmental Management
Series Number
Index ID 70232259
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization Upper Midwest Water Science Center