Reducing bias in shorebird nest survival rates across a large Arctic landscape

Reproductive success is a key demographic parameter that can have profound impacts on a species' population trend. Indeed, poor reproductive success has been suggested as a contributing factor to the declines observed in many species of birds, including Arctic-breeding shorebirds. However, the available information on Arctic-breeding shorebird nest survival is restricted to a limited number of non-random locations where proximity to human settlements and traditional invasive monitoring techniques may artificially alter nest predation rates and, thus, bias results. To accurately assess reproductive success, unbiased estimates are needed. In this study, we monitored 96 shorebird nests (six species) at 41 randomly selected sites across a large Arctic landscape (1219 km² area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge) using minimally invasive techniques (i.e. single nest visits, temperature loggers and cameras) in 2019 and 2022. Overall, daily survival was 0.975 (95% CI: 0.955–0.987), which translates to a 53% (95% CI: 32–72%) probability of a shorebird nest surviving the median (25 days) incubation period for the studied species. Camera footage indicated Arctic Foxes Vulpes lagopus were the primary nest predator (85% of identified predation events), but Parasitic Jaegers Stercorarius parasiticus and Sandhill Cranes Grus canadensis also contributed to nest loss. In both years, greater nest failure occurred in the northwest and northcentral regions of our study area, potentially the result of greater shorebird abundance and density-dependent predation rates. Nest survival rates obtained in this study were the same as those obtained in a previous large geographical study that monitored shorebird nests across numerous small, non-randomly selected, high-density shorebird field sites that employed intensive human monitoring techniques. However, site-specific and annual differences in predator and shorebird species and densities make direct comparisons to previous studies difficult. Continued monitoring using methods that minimize bias and are consistent across time are needed to accurately measure true changes in nest survival rates that may occur under a changing climate and with increased human development.