Invasive carp are expanding throughout the upper Mississippi River basin and are of great concern due to their potential economic and ecological impacts. Identification of spawning locations provides critical information on recruitment sources to evaluate potential management strategies. Our objective was to create and validate a spawning habitat suitability model of the Des Moines River, Iowa, during low-, average-, and high-water-level conditions. Backwater availability, abundance of hardpoints (structures that create turbulence), river gradient and sinuosity, water temperature, and continuously free-flowing river lengths were used as model parameters. The model was compared to back-calculated spawning locations from invasive carp eggs collected in 2014–2015. Turbulent hardpoints, river sinuosity, and gradient were not significant predictors of invasive carp spawning locations, and backwater availability in the 25 river kilometers downstream of each reach was inversely correlated with invasive carp spawning locations. Invasive carp eggs were not caught in 2014 despite optimal spawning conditions, revealing that spawning may have high interannual variation. This study suggests that predicting invasive carp reproduction may require variables in addition to those currently proposed.
